The Biggest Upsets in NFL History
In the NFL, upsets happen when the gap between expectation and execution gets exposed. A favourite can have the better record, the bigger names, and the shorter odds, then watch the game flip on a handful of possessions and one or two pivotal mistakes.
This list covers ten of the most stunning NFL upsets, from The Big Game to playoff shocks. For each game, you’ll get the context that made the matchup feel lopsided, the key stretch that changed the outcome, and what the result meant for both teams afterwards.
The Big Game XXV – Giants vs. Bills (1991)
Buffalo entered The Big Game XXV as a 7-point favourite, fresh off a 51-3 blowout of the Raiders in the AFC Championship. The Bills ran the no-huddle “K-Gun” offence with Jim Kelly and Thurman Thomas, and most people expected them to outscore New York. The Giants had lost starting quarterback Phil Simms late in the season, so they leaned on backup Jeff Hostetler and a slower style that didn’t look built for a track meet.
New York flipped the script by controlling the clock and keeping Buffalo’s offence on the sideline, holding the ball for over 40 minutes, still a Big Game record. Even after Thomas broke a 67-yard touchdown run to put Buffalo up 19-17, the Giants answered with a Matt Bahr field goal for a 20-19 lead.
With eight seconds left, Scott Norwood attempted a 47-yard field goal to win it, and it went wide right, for the only one-point in the history of The Big Game. The loss started Buffalo’s run of four straight defeats in The Big Game, while the Giants won their second title in five years.
2010 NFC Wild Card – Seahawks vs. Saints (2011)
New Orleans entered the 2010 NFC Wild Card as the defending champs, and their 11-5 season had them favoured by about 10.5 points on the road. Seattle arrived at 7-9 after winning a weak NFC West, becoming the first team with a losing record to reach the playoffs. Even with the crowd in Seattle, most people expected Drew Brees and the Saints to control the night, and the early 10-0 lead only reinforced that view.
Seattle still refused to play small, and Matt Hasselbeck’s three first-half touchdown passes helped swing the game into a shootout that the Seahawks led 34-30 in the fourth quarter. With about 3:40 left, Marshawn Lynch delivered the moment that defines this upset, a 67-yard “Beast Quake” touchdown run that broke nine tackles and sparked celebrations strong enough to register on a nearby seismograph.
Seattle held on to win 41-36, sealing one of the biggest NFL upsets, and even though they lost to Chicago the next week, the game became a clear warning for heavy favourites.
1998 NFC Championship – Falcons vs. Vikings (1999)
Minnesota’s 1998 team looked like a Big Game lock after a 15-1 season that tied the NFL record with 556 points. Randall Cunningham ran the offence, and rookie Randy Moss gave it a home-run threat. Cris Carter added a steady target, and the Vikings had not lost at home all year. Kicker Gary Anderson was perfect on field goals and extra points, and Minnesota opened the NFC title game as an 11-point favourite at the Metrodome against a strong 14-2 Falcons team that still felt a step behind.
Late in the fourth quarter, the turning point came when Minnesota led 27-20 and moved into range for a clinching kick. Anderson missed a 38-yard field goal, his first miss of the season, and it gave Atlanta a final chance. Chris Chandler drove the Falcons for a tying touchdown and hit Terance Mathis to make it 27-27, then Morten Andersen won it in overtime with a field goal for a 30-27 upset.
Atlanta reached its first Big Game (XXXIII) but lost to Denver, while Minnesota became the first 15-1 team to miss The Big Game and carried another painful playoff ending into its long title drought.
1987 NFC Divisional Playoff – Vikings vs. 49ers (1988)
San Francisco came into the 1987 playoffs as the NFC’s top seed after a 13-2 season, played over 15 games because of the strike. Joe Montana and Jerry Rice led a stacked roster, and most people expected the 49ers to control the postseason at home. Minnesota barely made the field at 8-7 and came in as a wild card after beating New Orleans, but they were still a big underdog at Candlestick.
Minnesota took over the game early on January 9, 1988, and never let San Francisco settle in. Wade Wilson threw for 298 yards, and Anthony Carter exploded for 10 catches and 227 yards, while Reggie Rutland added a 45-yard interception return touchdown to build a 20-3 halftime lead.
The Vikings stayed in front, pushed it to 27-10, and Bill Walsh even pulled Montana after he had 109 passing yards and one interception, turning to Steve Young. Minnesota held Rice to 28 yards and finished a 36-24 win, then lost to Washington in the NFC title game, while San Francisco regrouped and won the competition after the 1988 and 1989 seasons.
The Big Game IV – Chiefs vs. Vikings (1970)
The Big Game IV came with a clear pecking order in most people’s minds, which is why it still sits high on the list of Biggest NFL Upsets. Minnesota entered January 1970 at 12-2 with the league’s top-ranked offence and defence, plus the “Purple People Eaters” identity that bullied teams all season. Kansas City had gone 11-3 and were the AFL’s top defence, but the Chiefs were still treated as the underdog from the “inferior” league, and the Vikings were installed as 13-point favourites in the final game before the AFL–NFL merger.
Kansas City backed up its plan from the opening kick in the rain at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans. The Chiefs’ defence forced Joe Kapp and the Vikings into five turnovers and held Minnesota to 67 rushing yards, while Jan Stenerud knocked in three first-half field goals and Len Dawson kept the offence steady. The Chiefs led 16-0 at halftime, and Minnesota never found a way back, even after a second-half touchdown. Kansas City closed out a 23-7 win that gave the franchise its first Big Game title and delivered the AFL a second straight championship before the merger, while Minnesota’s loss became the first step in a decade that ended with three more defeats in The Big Game and no title.
1996 AFC Divisional Playoff – Jaguars vs. Broncos (1997)
Jacksonville were only in their second NFL season in 1996, and simply reaching the playoffs at 9-7 felt ahead of schedule. After winning a Wild Card game, they went to Mile High to face Denver, the AFC’s No. 1 seed at 13-3 with John Elway at quarterback. The Broncos ranked first on offence and fourth on defence, and sportsbooks made them 12- to 14-point favourites. The Jaguars did have a six-game winning streak, but very few people expected it to last another week.
Denver jumped out to a 12-0 lead, yet Jacksonville stayed behind coach Tom Coughlin and quarterback Mark Brunell. Brunell hit throws and added scrambles, while Natrone Means kept drives alive. A touchdown to Keenan McCardell put the Jaguars up 23-20, then a 16-yard strike to Jimmy Smith made it 30-20. Elway cut it to 30-27 late, but Jacksonville closed it out on defence and reached the AFC title game, where New England ended the run. Denver responded by winning The Big Game and repeating in 1998.
The Big Game XXXII – Broncos vs. Packers (1998)
Green Bay entered The Big Game XXXII in January 1998 as the defending champion and the clear NFC favourite, which is why it still ranks among the Biggest NFL Upsets. The Packers went 13-3 and had Brett Favre coming off his third straight MVP in 1997, and oddsmakers made them 11-point favourites. The Broncos arrived at 12-4 as a wild card, and John Elway carried the weight of a 0-3 Big Game record. The backdrop made Denver’s task even tougher, since the AFC had not won a Lombardi trophy in 13 years and the NFC had controlled the game from 1984 to 1996.
Denver matched Green Bay from the opening drive and turned the game into a fight in the trenches. Terrell Davis took over despite a migraine in the second quarter, and he finished with 157 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Elway did not need huge passing numbers, but his third-down scramble and “helicopter” hit became the game’s image.
The score was 24-24 late, then Elway led a final drive, and Davis scored from the 1 with 1:45 left for a 31-24 lead, and Denver sealed it with an interception of Favre’s last throw. The win ended the AFC’s drought. Denver repeated the next year in The Big Game XXXIII before Elway retired, while Green Bay never reached another in the Favre era.
The Big Game XXXVI – Patriots vs. Rams (2002)
The Big Game XXXVI looked set up for St. Louis, with the Rams as 14-point favourites behind “The Greatest Show on Turf.” Kurt Warner had won MVP, the Rams went 14-2, and the offence had rolled for years with Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, and Isaac Bruce. New England arrived as a surprise after starting 0-2 and losing Drew Bledsoe to injury in Week 2, then second-year quarterback Tom Brady guided the Patriots to 11-5 and through the AFC bracket, including the controversial “Tuck Rule” game.
Belichick’s defence led the play with physical coverage and enough pressure to keep the Rams out of rhythm, and it showed on the scoreboard. New England led 14-3 at halftime after a Ty Law pick-six and a short Brady touchdown pass, then carried a 17-3 lead into the fourth quarter before St. Louis tied it 17-17 with under two minutes left.
Brady answered with a 53-yard drive in 1:21, with no timeouts, setting up Adam Vinatieri’s 48-yard field goal with seven seconds remaining for a 20-17 win. The point spread and the opponent are why this result still belongs in any Biggest NFL Upsets conversation.
The Big Game XLII – Giants vs. Patriots (2008)
New England reached The Big Game XLII at 18-0, chasing the first perfect season since the 1972 Dolphins. The 2007 Patriots had crushed teams all year with a +315 point differential, and the offence broke records behind Tom Brady’s 50 touchdown passes, and Randy Moss’s 23 TD catches. The New York Giants arrived as a 10-6 wild card that had heated up in the playoffs, and their best proof they could hang came in Week 17, a 38-35 loss that pushed New England to the end. Even so, the Patriots closed as 12-point favourites and most people expected 19-0.
The game stayed tight because the Giants turned it into a defensive fight and kept Brady under heat. Osi Umenyiora added more pressure, and New England led only 7-3 after three quarters before Eli Manning hit David Tyree for a go-ahead touchdown. Brady answered with a late TD to Moss for a 14-10 lead with 2:42 left, then Manning led a final drive from his own 17, highlighted by Tyree’s 32-yard Helmet Catch, before finding Plaxico Burress for a 13-yard TD with 35 seconds left in a 17-14 win. Manning earned the MVP, and the Patriots’ perfect season ended with one loss in the final test.
The Big Game III – Jets vs. Colts (1969)
The Big Game III is the game that sits at the centre of any list of the biggest NFL upsets, because it hit the league’s ego as much as the scoreboard.
The NFL and AFL were still separate, and the Packers had won the first two matchups with room to spare, so plenty of people treated the AFL as second-class. Baltimore looked unstoppable at 13-1, with a defence that allowed 144 points, and they had just crushed Cleveland 34-0 in the NFL title game. The Colts closed as 18 to 19.5-point favourites, and Joe Namath added fuel by publicly guaranteeing a Jets win.
New York backed him up with a plan that kept the game slow and controlled, leaning on the run and short throws to avoid giveaways. Matt Snell carried it 30 times for 121 yards and a touchdown, while Namath went 17-of-28 for 206 yards with no touchdown passes, and that was enough because the Jets' defence owned the day.
Baltimore turned it over five times, including three interceptions by Earl Morrall before Johnny Unitas came in, and the Colts’ only points came on a late touchdown in a 16-7 loss on January 12, 1969. The win gave the AFL real credibility heading into the merger; the Jets never returned to The Big Game, and the Colts later won The Big Game V.
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