Super Bowl Trends Which Have Stood Out Over Time
No game attracts as much betting attention as the Super Bowl. Because the action is so heavy, sportsbooks adjust quickly, and prices often settle into a range where small details and smart timing matter. When you look back at enough Super Bowls, you start to see repeat patterns in how close games land against the spread, who tends to win MVP, and how certain props behave once the game script takes shape. Below, we break those trends down across spreads, moneylines, MVP betting, props, and live angles so you can read the market with clearer logic.
The Spread & Moneyline Trends
Point spreads and moneylines are the first stop for most bettors, and the Super Bowl provides decades of results on how favourites and underdogs actually perform. Two patterns stand out: a recent underdog-friendly stretch and the strong “Win = Cover” tendency in Super Bowl betting.
The Underdog Era
In the early years of the Super Bowl, the favourites often handled business, both on the scoreboard and at the betting window. Over the last couple of decades, however, the results have swung toward underdogs, especially against the spread. Underdogs have covered in 17 of the last 25 Super Bowls, which is about 68%, and that’s a big reason “take the points” has stayed live so often in this game.
That same trend shows up in the straight-up results, too. Since 2009, 11 of the last 16 Super Bowl winners have entered kickoff as underdogs. The 2017 Eagles (+170) beat the Patriots, and the 2020 Buccaneers (+140) beat the Chiefs. Even small underdogs have gotten there, like the Chiefs around +105 to +110 in Super Bowl LVII. When the teams look close, the underdog deserves real respect, and the points can end up being the difference, even if you don’t love the underdog to win outright.
The “Win = Cover” Rule
One of the strongest Super Bowl betting patterns is the “win equals cover” rule, which shows up when the outright winner also covers the point spread. Even though the spread is built to balance the matchup, Super Bowl results have usually landed with a clear separation between the winner and the number. Recent history reflects that, with the winner covering in 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls and 18 of the last 21, and only seven winners failing to cover across 59 Super Bowls.
For bettors, this trend matters because it links the spread and moneyline more tightly than in a typical regular-season game. If you like an underdog to keep it close, a small moneyline bet can fit the same read because the underdog that covers often ends up winning outright. If you like the favourite to win, laying the points can offer better value than paying the heavy moneyline, since the favourite wins tend to clear the spread at a high rate.
The MVP: Trends in Super Bowl MVP Awards
The Super Bowl MVP is a popular prop for bettors because it can deliver big odds beyond the obvious quarterback pick. If you want to bet it smarter, it helps to know how the award has typically been split by position: quarterbacks win most years, but wide receivers have shown up more lately, and every so often, a defensive player grabs the spotlight.
Quarterbacks Reign Supreme
Quarterbacks have dominated Super Bowl MVP voting for decades, and the split is clear in the results. The award has been handed out 59 times (with one co-MVP year creating 60 total winners), and quarterbacks have taken it in 34 of 59 Super Bowls, or about 58%. Wide receivers sit next with eight MVPs, running backs have seven, and defensive players make up most of the rest.
That history shapes MVP betting because quarterbacks handle the ball every snap and usually pile up the stats that voters reward. If you have a strong lean on the Super Bowl winner, the safest MVP bet is often that team’s quarterback, even if the price is shorter than other options. The value play comes when you can picture a different script, like a defence taking over or a skill player scoring in ways that steal the win.
Longshots: Who Doesn’t Win MVP
If you’re considering a long-shot Super Bowl MVP bet, it helps to know which positions have almost no historical path. Tight ends have never won the award, even with plenty of great ones reaching the game, and offensive linemen have never won because voters lean toward obvious stat lines and signature plays. Kickers and punters have also never taken MVP, even in games where a few big kicks shaped the final score.
Most MVPs still go to offence, and the quarterback has been the safest place to look. When it hasn’t been a QB, it has usually gone to a running back or a wide receiver, which helps explain why 49 of the 60 Super Bowl MVP awards have gone to quarterbacks, running backs, or wide receivers. The one true special-teams-style winner was Desmond Howard in Super Bowl XXXI, and running backs have been quiet ever since Terrell Davis won in Super Bowl XXXII (played in January 1998).
Wide Receivers: A New Alternative to the QB?
While quarterbacks dominate Super Bowl MVP voting, wide receivers have become a real alternative in the modern game. Eight receivers have won Super Bowl MVP so far, and several of those wins have come in the 2000s and beyond. Deion Branch won it in 2005, then Hines Ward in 2006, and Santonio Holmes in 2009. More recently, Julian Edelman won in 2019 in Super Bowl LIII, and Cooper Kupp won in 2022 in Super Bowl LVI, which fits the league’s shift toward pass-heavy offences.
That shift matters for MVP betting because the most common non-QB winner used to be a running back, especially in older, run-first eras. Now, a receiver is often the cleaner “second choice” when you think the winning quarterback won’t have a huge stat line. A receiver can steal the award when his impact is concentrated in the biggest moments, like Kupp scoring twice with the game-winner in Super Bowl LVI.
When Do Defenders Become a Shout?
Defenders rarely win Super Bowl MVP, but it could happen when the game tilts on defence and one player delivers the biggest swings. Defensive players have won the award 10 times in total, and the winning cases usually look similar: either the scoring stays low enough that no quarterback runs away with it, or one defender stacks impact plays that voters can’t ignore.
From a betting angle, a defensive MVP makes sense when your game script points to stalled drives and turnovers deciding field position. If you expect a pass rusher to wreck protection or a defensive back to turn a mistake into points, the long odds can justify a small stake, since defenders often sit 20/1 or longer. It also pairs well with an underdog you like because of its defence, because that path to an upset often produces a clear defensive MVP candidate.
Prop Market Patterns
Prop bets are a big part of Super Bowl betting, and the board goes way past anything tied to the final score. There are a few props that show patterns that are at least worth knowing before you bet.
In this section, we’ll focus on two of the most popular ones where past results can add context: the Gatorade colour and the method of the first score, field goal or touchdown.
The Gatorade Colour Tradition
The Gatorade colour prop is a novelty bet on which colour sports drink will be dumped on the winning head coach during the postgame celebration. It has been around since the 1980s, and it’s popular because it’s easy to follow on the broadcast and usually gets decided in the final minutes.
Since 2001, orange has been the most common colour, showing up five times, while blue and clear have appeared four times each. Purple and yellow have appeared four times each, and there have been four Super Bowls where no bath was shown on camera. The strangest pattern is red, which hasn’t appeared for more than 25 years, even when red-themed teams make the game.
Sportsbooks often shade odds toward orange and blue, and some bettors also consider team habits, like the Chiefs getting purple after Super Bowls LVII and LVIII, while the Patriots have had blue show up in a couple of wins. It’s still a high-variance prop, so it’s best treated as a small, fun bet with history as a light guide.
The “First Score” Method: Field Goal vs. Touchdown
This prop asks how the first points of the Super Bowl will be scored, usually a touchdown or a field goal, with a safety as a rare option. Bettors like it because it settles early, and Super Bowls often start cautiously, which can turn early drives into three points.
Before Super Bowl LV in 2021, the first score was a field goal in three straight Super Bowls, including Super Bowl LII, the 41-33 shootout that still opened with an Eagles field goal, and Super Bowl LIV, where the 49ers scored first with a field goal. In a wider sample, nine of the last 13 Super Bowls opened with a non-touchdown score, and 25 of the first 54 did the same, about 46%.
That history can make “first score is a field goal or safety” worth a look when the price is generous. With a hit rate near 46%, fair odds have been estimated around +115, yet books sometimes post +140 or +150 because many bettors expect a fast touchdown. Matchup still matters, but conservative scripts and strong red-zone defences tend to push the opener toward a field goal.
In-Game Flow Trends
Understanding how Super Bowls usually play out can help with live betting and quarter- or half-market betting. Two patterns show up often: a quiet first quarter and a higher-than-expected chance of a safety, which can swing totals and create odd scorelines.
Slow Starts in the First Quarter
Super Bowls often open with low scoring, since teams tend to play carefully early and defences arrive fresh after two weeks of prep. That shows up on the scoreboard in a lot of 0-0, 3-0, or 7-3 first quarters, and it even shows up in extreme examples like Tom Brady’s teams scoring three total first-quarter points across his first nine Super Bowl appearances.
That slow-start pattern is why many bettors look at the first-quarter under or even the first-half under, with first-quarter totals often set around 10 points. In Super Bowl LV, the Chiefs and Buccaneers combined for 10 in the first quarter, and the first touchdown arrived late in the period. Live bettors can use the same idea by waiting for a few empty drives and then grabbing a better over number if the total drops.
Safety Anomalies
Safeties are one of the rarest scoring plays in football, yet they show up in the Super Bowl at a higher rate than in regular-season games. Through 59 Super Bowls, there have been nine safeties, which is about 15%, or roughly one every 6.6 Super Bowls. Safeties have also shown up in clusters, including three straight Super Bowls with one from XLVI to XLVIII.
High-pressure moments near the goal line help explain some of it, and strategy can play a role too, like the Ravens taking an intentional safety late in Super Bowl XLVII. A few have come from famous mistakes, including the snap over Peyton Manning’s head on the first play of Super Bowl XLVIII and Tom Brady’s end-zone grounding safety in Super Bowl XLVI. For betting, the safety prop got extra attention during the stretch when Super Bowls XLVI, XLVII, and XLVIII all featured one, but it still hits about once every six games, so it fits best as a small longshot or a situational live bet when an offence is pinned deep.
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