Predicting the 2025/26 NBA Rookie of the Year
The 2025 NBA Draft arrived with big expectations, and early signs suggest the hype was justified. This rookie class ranks among the strongest in recent memory, led by Cooper Flagg, a highly touted No. 1 pick who has been labelled a generational prospect since high school.
The lottery also produced a wealth of talent. Dylan Harper brings exceptional playmaking, VJ Edgecombe offers explosive scoring from the wing, and Ace Bailey adds size and athleticism to the forward position. Together, the class blends polished college stars with teenage standouts ready to make an immediate impact.
Winning Rookie of the Year will depend on both talent and situation. Victor Wembanyama showed how the right role can lead to an award. This group will aim to replicate that success, with Flagg, Harper, Edgecombe, Bailey, and others set to headline the race.
Top Rookie Candidates
Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks)
Cooper Flagg entered the league as the No. 1 overall pick and the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year. In preseason expert surveys, he dominated the ROTY voting by a wide margin, showing the enormous confidence in his readiness to make an immediate impact. At 6’9” with a versatile skill set, Flagg combines the size of a forward with guard-like ability, making him a rare teenage prospect who looks built for the NBA from day one.
His game is already advanced on both ends of the floor. Flagg can score inside and outside, facilitate offence with his passing vision, and defend multiple positions. Dallas plans to give him a significant role right away, and the roster around him should help ease the transition. The Mavericks, who retooled around Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson, will draw defensive attention away from Flagg, allowing him to exploit mismatches and find clean looks.
Analysts often say Rookie of the Year comes down to talent meeting opportunity, and Flagg checks both boxes. He will have the freedom to contribute across the board while playing for a team with playoff expectations. A realistic projection would be 16-18 points, 7 rebounds, and around 4 assists per game, along with contributions on defence in steals and blocks. Those kinds of numbers, paired with winning basketball, are usually enough to seal the award.
Dallas has every reason to feature Flagg prominently, as he is expected to be the franchise’s future. Barring injury or unexpected struggles, he stands as the favourite to capture Rookie of the Year honours in 2025/26.
Dylan Harper (San Antonio Spurs)
Dylan Harper, the No. 2 overall pick, enters the league with expectations nearly as high as Cooper Flagg’s. The 6’5” guard is the son of former NBA champion Ron Harper, and he plays with a maturity that belies his age. In early Rookie of the Year projections, he finished second behind Flagg, a clear indication that many expect him to have an immediate impact.
San Antonio is preparing to hand him a big role alongside De’Aaron Fox in the backcourt. Pairing Harper with last year’s Rookie of the Year, Victor Wembanyama, gives the Spurs a young duo with enormous potential. Their pick-and-roll partnership could quickly become one of the most dangerous combinations in the league. Harper’s elite shooting and strong decision-making should fit perfectly with Wembanyama’s inside presence.
The main question is how quickly Harper can establish himself as the lead guard, given that San Antonio already has young backcourt players competing for minutes. However, the franchise invested heavily in him at No. 2, and it is likely only a matter of time before he is handed complete control of the offence. His ability to balance scoring with playmaking will be central to his Rookie of the Year case.
If Harper can average around 15 points and 5 to 6 assists per game while improving the Spurs’ overall competitiveness, his record will speak for itself.
With San Antonio’s proven development system and a natural connection with Wembanyama, Harper has a real opportunity to challenge Flagg for the award. Among preseason voters, he earned 38 points in Rookie of the Year projections, second only to Flagg, showing just what people expect of him.
VJ Edgecombe (Philadelphia 76ers)
VJ Edgecombe, selected third overall, enters the league as one of the more intriguing Rookie of the Year candidates. He joins a Philadelphia 76ers team in transition, where scoring help is a priority. Edgecombe’s calling card is his ability to put the ball in the basket. At Baylor, he averaged 15.0 points per game and built a reputation as a shot creator who can score off the dribble. With a quick first step and a smooth jumper, he comes off as a difficult cover at the NBA level.
Philadelphia plans to use him as an offensive spark on the wing, and early Rookie of the Year projections placed him third behind Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper. The 76ers have reloaded around Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey. With Joel Embiid and Paul George pacing their returns and Tyrese Maxey established, there is an opportunity for Edgecombe to compete for wing minutes and secondary scoring.
The big challenge will be efficiency and consistency. As with most rookie scorers, there will be nights when shots do not fall, and he will also need to earn playing time in a rotation that includes several young wings and guards. Still, the Sixers’ investment in him suggests he will get every chance to prove himself.
If Edgecombe can average around 14 to 16 points per game with respectable shooting splits, he will build a strong Rookie of the Year case. His candidacy may ultimately depend on whether he can deliver big moments and swing games with his scoring. Fans in Philadelphia already view him as a potential homegrown star, and if he adapts quickly, he could emerge as a surprise contender in this race.
Ace Bailey (Utah Jazz)
Ace Bailey, selected fifth overall by the Utah Jazz, enters the league as one of the more intriguing later-lottery picks to watch. While he lacks the hype of the top-five selections, he is already creating excitement with his play. A 6’10” forward with bounce and versatility, Bailey was Big Ten All-Freshman and Third-Team All-Big Ten at Rutgers and is known for his relentless energy and two-way impact. Early Rookie of the Year projections placed him fifth, showing that expectations for him are quietly rising.
The Jazz are rebuilding and prioritizing young talent, which should provide Bailey with numerous opportunities. Utah’s new coach has praised his motor and plans to use him as a versatile forward who can handle multiple roles. Some nights Bailey may lead the break, while on others he could take on the task of guarding the opponent’s best scorer. His ability to defend positions one through four, combined with a developing three-point shot, will help keep him on the floor.
For Rookie of the Year consideration, Bailey will need both steady production and eye-catching performances. Averages in the range of 12-14 points, 7 rebounds, and defensive contributions in steals and blocks would keep him in the conversation. Highlighting games where he showcases his full skill set, whether through near triple-doubles or finishes at the rim, would further enhance his profile.
On a Utah team built around Lauri Markkanen, Bailey has the chance to become a focal point sooner than expected. Fans are already comparing him to a young Andrei Kirilenko for his ability to fill up the stat sheet in multiple categories. While winning Rookie of the Year from the 15th pick spot is rare, Bailey has the talent, opportunity, and team context to emerge as a legitimate dark horse if the top picks do not dominate.
Nique Clifford (Sacramento Kings)
Nique Clifford, drafted 24th overall by the Sacramento Kings, has quickly emerged as one of the most surprising rookies to watch. While few expected him to enter the Rookie of the Year conversation, his breakout Summer League performance has sparked buzz. In Las Vegas, Clifford averaged 15.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists and earned NBA 2K26 All-Summer League First Team honours.
At 23 years old, Clifford arrived as a more mature prospect out of Colorado State, and the Kings are already reaping the benefits of his NBA-ready approach. His game has drawn comparisons to players like Josh Hart for his versatility and Devin Booker for his scoring upside. With strong instincts and poise, Clifford has the tools to contribute right away rather than spending time developing on the bench.
The Kings’ roster also gives him an opportunity.
After trading De’Aaron Fox to San Antonio and adding Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan, there is room for Clifford to carve out a meaningful role. Veterans such as DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine provide valuable experience but will not carry the load every night, leaving room for Clifford to carve out a meaningful role. His high basketball IQ and willingness to make the right play should help him earn trust from the coaching staff.
For Clifford to become a true Rookie of the Year contender, he will need to translate his Summer League efficiency against NBA competition. A line around 13 to 15 points per game with solid shooting percentages and contributions across rebounds, assists, and defence would keep him in the conversation.
While still a long shot compared with higher draft picks, many around the Kings believe he could be the steal of the draft. If Sacramento’s mix of youth and veterans finds success, Clifford’s steady play could make him one of the league’s most unexpected rookie standouts.
RotY Race Factors
Two major elements usually determine the Rookie of the Year: opportunity and impact. A rookie must handle the ball enough to bring meaningful numbers, and he must also show that he makes a positive difference for his team.
Historically, the award often goes to the player who combines strong statistics with team relevance. Stephon Castle’s win last season was not just about his production, but also his role as the centre point of the Spurs and the way he improved them when on the court.
This year, the situation will again be crucial. Cooper Flagg steps into a playoff-level team that plans to feature him immediately, giving him the ideal combination of talent and opportunity.
By contrast, a skilled rookie buried on the bench or playing for a team in turmoil will find it harder to gain votes. Voters also lean heavily on counting stats such as points, rebounds, and assists. Efficiency and defence matter less in this context, since rookies are rarely polished in those areas, but consistently filling the box score remains essential.
A good story can also shape the race. A rookie who delivers a signature moment, such as a game-winning shot on national television or a 40-point performance, will remain in voters’ minds. Team success is another tiebreaker. While not as important for Rookie of the Year as it is for MVP, helping a team win carries weight when comparing two players with similar production.
Fitness is an additional factor. Note: the NBA’s 65-game minimum does not apply to Rookie of the Year, though availability still matters to voters. In recent years, lack of consistent fitness has derailed several promising campaigns, making durability just as important as performance.
In the end, the Rookie of the Year usually goes to the player who combines volume production with highlight plays. History shows that voters reward the rookie who consistently fills the stat sheet and generates excitement.
Flagg fits that profile as the early frontrunner, but the race remains open for another rookie to seize the moment and rewrite expectations.
Projection
Cooper Flagg enters as the favourite for the 2025/26 Rookie of the Year. He possesses all the necessary ingredients, including elite talent, immediate opportunity in Dallas, and strong early backing from experts. Projected averages around 17 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.5 blocks on a playoff team would make him difficult to beat.
Dylan Harper is the top challenger, with the chance to post big numbers as San Antonio’s secondary ball-handler alongside De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama. VJ Edgecombe could also emerge if he becomes Philadelphia’s leading scorer, while Ace Bailey and Nique Clifford remain long-shot sleepers. This year’s class is strong enough that the outcome may stay uncertain until the final weeks of the season.