Understanding Blackjack Odds: A Comprehensive Guide
Blackjack odds shape every decision at the table, from whether to take another card to when it makes sense to double your bet. Knowing the chances of winning, busting, or pushing helps you avoid guesswork and play more confidently. This guide breaks down the key probabilities that affect your choices and how they can tilt the game in your favour.
Table of Contents:
- Basic Blackjack Odds and Probabilities
- What are the Player’s Odds in Blackjack?
- How to Calculate Blackjack Payouts Based on Odds?
- House Edge in Blackjack
- Blackjack Strategy and Its Impact on Odds
- Blackjack Payouts and Their Effect on Odds
- Blackjack Side Bets and Their True Odds
- Dealer Rules and Their Impact on Odds
- Probability of Specific Hand Combinations
- How the Number of Decks Affects Blackjack Odds
- Mistakes Players Make When Judging Blackjack Odds
- How to Make Smarter Decisions at the Blackjack Table
- Blackjack Odds FAQ
Basic Blackjack Odds and Probabilities
Blackjack is built on quick decisions, each one carrying real weight. Understanding the odds behind common situations can help you avoid costly mistakes and make stronger plays. Here are some of the key probabilities every player should know.
- Odds of Being Dealt a Natural Blackjack (21): A natural blackjack occurs when your first two cards are an Ace and a 10-value card. The odds of being dealt a natural are about 4.8%, which works out to roughly once every 21 hands.
- Odds of Busting When Hitting: Your chances of busting when you hit depend on your current hand total. Hitting on 12 gives you about a 31% chance of busting, while hitting on 16 raises the risk to around 62%. The closer your total is to 21, the higher the risk becomes.
- Probability of the Dealer Busting: The probability of the dealer busting depends largely on their upcard. If the dealer shows a low card, such as a 4, 5, or 6, their bust rate is around 42%. With a strong upcard, such as a 10 or an Ace, the bust rate drops to between 17% and 23%.
- Probability of Winning a Hand Without a Natural: Even if you are not dealt a blackjack, playing with basic strategy gives you a solid chance. On average, players win about 42% to 44% of the time in standard games without hitting a natural.
General Odds and Probabilities
| Scenario | Probability / Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Being dealt a natural blackjack | 4.8% (about 1 in 21 hands) | Pays 3:2 if won, push if dealer also has blackjack |
| Player wins a hand | ~42% | Using basic strategy |
| Dealer wins a hand | ~49% | |
| Tie (push) | ~9% | |
| House edge (with basic strategy) | ~0.5% | Can vary by rules and number of decks |
| House edge (single deck) | 0.04% | Lowest edge |
| House edge (eight decks) | 0.70% | Edge increases with more decks |
What are the Player’s Odds in Blackjack?
The player’s odds in blackjack, or rather, the player’s likelihood of winning a hand in a standard game of blackjack, averages out at a little over 42 percent. However, as you get to dictate the play by taking cards or standing, there are different blackjack odds for players based on the value of the cards in your hand.
Here’s a list of the player’s blackjack odds of going bust for each hand value that you can get in the card game (the higher the percentage, the more likely you’ll go bust if you choose to Hit):
- 0 to 11: 0%
- 12: 31%
- 13: 39%
- 14: 56%
- 15: 58%
- 16: 62%
- 17: 69%
- 18: 77%
- 19: 85%
- 20: 92%
- 21: 100%
As you can see from the list above, you’re more likely to go bust on any hand of 14 or more than you are to get a card that will claw you closer to the value of 21.
Player Hand Totals: Odds of Winning, Pushing, and Losing
| Player Hand | Winning Odds | Push Odds | Losing Odds | House Edge (approx.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 (Blackjack) | ~100% | 0% | 0% | 0% (pays 3:2) |
| 20 | ~92% | ~8% | ~0% | ~0.5% |
| 19 | ~85% | ~8% | ~7% | ~0.5% |
| 18 | ~77% | ~8% | ~15% | ~1% |
| 17 | ~70% | ~8% | ~22% | ~1% |
| 16 | ~60% | ~8% | ~32% | ~1.5% |
| 15 | ~50% | ~8% | ~42% | ~2% |
| 14 | ~42% | ~8% | ~50% | ~2% |
| 13 | ~35% | ~8% | ~57% | ~2.5% |
| 12 | ~30% | ~8% | ~62% | ~3% |
| 11/10/9 (Double Down) | ~50% | ~0% | ~50% | ~1–1.5% (when doubling) |
| 8 or less | ~30% | ~0% | ~70% | ~4% |
Odds of Busting (Player Hits on a Total)
| Player Total | Odds of Busting When Hitting |
|---|---|
| 12 | 31% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 17 | 69% |
How to Calculate Blackjack Payouts Based on Odds?
You’ll almost always find that the basic blackjack odds for a win of any kind are 1:1. What this means is that when you place a 1.0 bet and win, the blackjack odds will return 2.0. The odds are read as “return: bet,” so a 5.0 bet at 1:1 returns 5.0, or 10.0 in total.
At 3:2 blackjack odds, a winning 5.0 bet returns a little bit more than the standard win, yielding a total of 12.50. Winning will usually double your bet in blackjack, but getting that ace and ten-card will return an additional 50 percent of the value of the bet.
For any of the other side bet returns, you can use the same method to calculate the blackjack odds. See the figure, such as 5:2, and the left side showing how much the value on the right side will be multiplied by in the event of a win. Here, a 3.50 bet that wins gets a 2.5x multiplier – as five is 2.5x greater than 2 – to win 8.75 and bring back the stake, making for a 12.25 total return.
House Edge in Blackjack
The house edgein blackjack is the built-in mathematical advantage the casino holds over the player across thousands of hands. It is what keeps casinos profitable while still giving players a fair chance to win in the short term.
In simple terms, it means that for every dollar you bet, the casino expects to keep a small percentage over time. With favourable rules and perfect basic strategy, the house edge can be as low as 0.5%. Depending on the game’s conditions, including payouts of 6:5 for blackjack or the dealer hitting on soft 17, the edge can rise to 0.8% or even higher.
This advantage does not come from cheating or manipulating the cards. It comes from rules that slightly tilt the odds in the casino’s favour. One major example is that players who bust automatically lose, even if the dealer busts afterward. That single rule alone gives the house a significant edge.
Other factors that influence the house edge include the number of decks used, whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17, and the payout offered for a natural blackjack. The more these rules favour the casino, the higher the house edge becomes.
Blackjack vs. Other Casino Games: A Comparison of House Edges
Blackjack offers some of the most favourable odds among casino games. With the correct basic strategy, the house edge can be as low as 0.5% to 1%, meaning the casino keeps only a small portion of each bet over time. By comparison, American roulette has a house edge of about 5.26%, while slot machines typically range from 2% to 15%, depending on the game and payout structure.
Blackjack Strategy and Its Impact on Odds
Basic strategy is a set of decisions, based on math and probability, that outlines the best way to play every possible hand in blackjack. It considers your cards and the dealer’s upcard to guide you on whether to hit, stand, double down, or split.
Following basic strategy does not guarantee a win on any individual hand, but it significantly lowers the house edge. Without strategy, the house edge can exceed 2%, whereas using correct basic strategy can reduce it to under 1%. This means you lose less over time compared to players who rely on guesswork, helping your bankroll last longer.
Every action you take affects your odds. Hitting gives you a chance to improve your hand but also increases the risk of busting, while standing can protect a strong total. Doubling down lets you increase your bet when the odds are in your favour, and splitting can turn a weaker hand into two stronger ones.
Blackjack Payouts and Their Effect on Odds
In most traditional blackjack games, a natural blackjack pays 3:2, meaning a $10 bet wins $15. However, some casinos offer a lower 6:5 payout, where the same $10 bet wins only $12. Although the difference may seem small, over time it significantly increases the house edge. A 6:5 payout raises the house edge by more than 1%, making it harder for players to maintain an advantage. To improve your odds, it is better to choose tables that offer the standard 3:2 payout.
Blackjack Side Bets and Their True Odds
Side bets in blackjack, such as Perfect Pairs and 21+3, are optional wagers placed alongside the main hand. They offer the chance for higher payouts when specific outcomes occur, such as matching pairs in your hand or forming certain combinations with the dealer’s upcard.
Although the rewards can be appealing, side bets carry a much higher house edge compared to the main game. Many side bets have a house edge of 7% or more, making them far less favourable than simply playing a main hand using basic strategy. While they can add entertainment value, players should recognize that side bets generally lower expected returns over time.
Side Bet Odds and House Edge
| Side Bet | Payouts (example) | House Edge Range |
|---|---|---|
| Perfect Pairs | 5:1 to 25:1 | 2%–11% |
| 21+3 | 5:1 to 100:1 | 3%–7% |
| Insurance | 2:1 | ~7% |
| Bet the Set | 10:1 to 20:1 | 8%+ |
Popular Types of Blackjack Side Bets
Here are some of the most common side bets you will find at blackjack tables, along with how they typically work and what odds to expect:
- Perfect Pairs: Pays out if your first two cards form a pair. Payouts vary depending on the type of pair, with perfect pairs (same value and suit) offering the highest payouts, often up to 25:1.
- 21+3: This side bet uses your two cards along with the dealer’s upcard to create a three-card poker hand. You win if the combination forms a hand like a flush, straight, three of a kind, suited three of a kind, or straight flush. The house edge for 21+3 varies depending on the paytable, but typically falls between 3% and 8%.
- Insurance: Offered when the dealer shows an Ace, insurance is a side bet that pays 2:1 if the dealer has blackjack. However, the odds rarely justify this bet for most players, and it typically increases the house edge.
- Lucky Ladies: Pays based on the total value of your first two cards, especially if they total 20. While the potential payouts can be sizable, the house edge on this side bet can exceed 24%, making it one of the least player-friendly options.
Dealer Rules and Their Impact on Odds
In blackjack, the dealer has to follow a fixed set of rules, and those rules have a big effect on the game's odds. One key rule is whether the dealer hits or stands on a soft 17. If the dealer stands on soft 17, they stop drawing cards, which is better for the player because it slightly lowers the dealer’s chances of improving their hand.
If the dealer hits on soft 17 instead, they have another chance to get a stronger total, which gives the house a bigger edge. This rule might seem small, but over many hands, it can make a noticeable difference in your results.
Dealer Final Hand Probabilities
| Dealer Final Hand | Probability |
|---|---|
| Natural Blackjack | 4.82% |
| 21 (3+ cards) | 7.36% |
| 20 | 17.58% |
| 19 | 13.48% |
| 18 | 13.81% |
| 17 | 14.58% |
| Non-bust (<21) | 71.63% |
| Bust (>21) | 28.37% |
Probability of Specific Hand Combinations
Knowing the odds of certain hands or outcomes can give you a clearer edge when making decisions at the blackjack table.
Chances of Drawing a Specific Card
In a standard deck of 52 cards, there are four cards of each rank (like four Kings, four 7s, etc.). So, if no cards have been dealt yet, the chance of drawing a specific card is 4 out of 52, or about 7.7%. As cards are played and removed from the deck (especially in games with fewer decks), those odds change slightly depending on what has already been seen.
Probability of Getting a Pair (for Splitting)
The chance of being dealt a pair (two cards of the same rank, like two 8s or two Jacks) is about 7.5% in a single-deck game. With more decks in play, this percentage can go up a little, but not by much. Pairs are important because they give players the option to split the hand into two separate bets.
Odds of Hitting a Five-Card Charlie
A Five-Card Charlie is a rare but fun situation where you manage to draw five cards without going over 21. Not all casinos recognize this as an automatic win, but when they do, it's a great bonus. The odds of this happening are very low, usually less than 2%, and it depends a lot on your starting cards and what you draw.
Dealer Bust Odds by Upcard
| Dealer Upcard | Dealer Bust Odds | Player Advantage |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.3% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.6% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.3% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.9% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.1% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 26.0% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.9% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.3% | -4.3% |
| 10/J/Q/K | 21.4% | -16.9% |
| Ace | 11.7% | -16.0% |
How the Number of Decks Affects Blackjack Odds
The number of decks used in blackjack plays an important role in shaping the odds and the house edge. In single-deck games, players have slightly better chances of being dealt a natural blackjack because Aces and 10-value cards are more concentrated. With multi-deck games, typically using four, six, or eight decks, the odds of hitting a natural decrease, and the impact of removing a single card becomes less significant. This makes strategies like card counting less effective.
More decks also increase the house edge, but deck count is not the only factor to consider. Casinos often combine more favourable deck setups, like double-deck blackjack, with rules that work against the player, including offering 6:5 payouts instead of the standard 3:2 or requiring the dealer to hit on soft 17. While fewer decks are generally better for players, the full set of game rules has a greater impact on long-term outcomes.
Choosing the best version of blackjack means weighing both the number of decks and the specific rules of the table.
Mistakes Players Make When Judging Blackjack Odds
The following mistakes do not change the math behind the game, but they can lead to decisions that cost players more over time. Here are some of the most common misjudgments:
- Overestimating the Frequency of Natural Blackjacks: While a natural 21 is one of the most sought-after outcomes, it only happens about 4.8% of the time (a point touched on earlier in the guide). Expecting them too often can cause players to become overconfident and make riskier decisions.
- Ignoring the Dealer’s Upcard Odds: Focusing only on your own hand without considering how the dealer’s upcard affects the probabilities can lead to costly mistakes.
- Chasing Losses Based on the Idea of Being “Due” for a Win: Believing that a win must happen after a series of losses, known as the gambler’s fallacy, overlooks the fact that each hand is an independent event.
How to Make Smarter Decisions at the Blackjack Table
While blackjack odds are determined by the game’s rules, players can make smarter choices that help them minimize mistakes and play more effectively. Some of these tips may sound familiar, but they exist for a reason.
- Follow Basic Strategy: Using a basic strategy chart ensures you make the mathematically correct decision for each hand based on your cards and the dealer’s upcard.
- Prefer Fewer-Deck Games: Single-deck and double-deck games slightly reduce the house edge compared to multi-deck versions, offering conditions that are marginally better for the player.
- Check the Table Rules: Games where the dealer stands on soft 17 and where surrender options are available generally offer conditions that are slightly better for players.
- Be Cautious with Side Bets: Side bets, as covered earlier, often have a much higher house edge and should be viewed as entertainment rather than serious wagers.
- Manage Your Bankroll Carefully: Set limits for your session and stick to them to maintain control over your play and avoid unnecessary losses.
- Avoid Playing on Tilt: Emotional decisions after a loss often lead to mistakes. Staying calm and sticking to your strategy is crucial for making smart, consistent plays over time.
Blackjack Odds FAQ
What are the odds of winning blackjack?
The odds of winning blackjack, or the probability of winning any given hand in blackjack, is just over 42 percent.
What type of blackjack has the best odds?
Assuming that the pays for blackjack and a win hold at 3:2 and 1:1, single-deck blackjack offers the best odds as it has the smallest house edge.
How to get better odds in blackjack?
You can get better odds in blackjack by playing games with fewer decks and by adhering to the optimal plays for your hand as laid out in Basic Strategy.
Are blackjack odds better with more players?
Whether you’re playing on your own or with five others, blackjack odds don’t change. However, knowing the other cards that are not in the shoe anymore can offer a small benefit to your probability calculations.
What are the blackjack odds if played perfectly?
If you play blackjack perfectly, in theory, you can cut the house edge to 0.5 percent. This doesn’t change the blackjack odds, but playing perfectly does increase your likelihood of winning each hand.
Does single-deck blackjack have better odds?
Single-deck blackjack will sometimes have worse odds than other forms of blackjack to cover the reduced house edge and the potential for the use of a perfect strategy.
What has better odds blackjack or roulette?
Standard European roulette has better odds than a game of blackjack without a range of side bets, offering an odds range of 1:1 to 35:1 rather than blackjack’s 1:1 to 2:1 for a win and insurance, respectively.
Learn more about blackjack in other guides:
- Common Mistakes in Blackjack
- How To Play Blackjack Online
- Blackjack Strategies
- Blackjack Etiquette
- Blackjack Decks
- Double Deck Blackjack
- 21+3 Blackjack Side Bet
- Blackjack Hands
- How To Win At Blackjack
- Blackjack Card Values
- Spanish 21
- American Blackjack
- Blackjack Surrender
- Blackjack Glossary
- Blackjack Insurance Guide
- Bet Behind Blackjack
- Blackjack Side Bets
- When Does the Dealer Have to Hit in Blackjack
- Pontoon Blackjack
- Perfect Pairs Blackjack
- Atlantic City Blackjack