The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is the world’s leading mixed martial arts (MMA) organisation, with its high-octane fights, glitzy events and diverse roster of fighters captivating millions of fans worldwide.
The UFC’s popularity has surged in recent years, as has the global popularity of betting on MMA, as punters look to combine the entertainment in the octagon with strategic wagering. With a variety of betting markets to explore, from moneyline wagers to prop bets, understanding how to bet on UFC can enhance your experience and potentially lead to smarter betting decisions.
This UFC betting guide will walk you through some of the essentials of betting on every UFC weight class, alongside some MMA betting tips and insights to help you navigate the unpredictability of the octagon.
Understanding UFC betting basics
Betting on UFC fights can be complex, with multiple markets catering to different preferences. Understanding these markets is the foundation of our UFC betting guide. Here are the core betting options and bet types you’ll encounter in UFC markets:
Moneyline bets: The simplest and most popular UFC bet, this involves choosing the fighter you believe will win a particular bout. For example, you could back Tom Aspinall to beat Ciryl Gane in a heavyweight clash.
Over/under rounds: This bet focuses on the fight’s duration. Bookmakers set a line (e.g., 2.5 rounds), and you wager whether a particular fight will end before (under) or after (over) that point. This market is ideal for anyone who is eager to predict whether a fight will end quickly or go the distance.
Method of victory: There are several different ways to win a UFC fight. In this bet type, you are betting on how a fighter will triumph: by knockout/technical knockout (KO/TKO), submission, or decision. For example, betting on a grappler to win by submission can offer value if their opponent struggles with ground defence. Similarly, a knockout specialist will be a good bet to KO an opponent with a weak chin.
Prop bets: These are specific, more niche wagers on unique outcomes in fights or events, such as whether a fight will earn “Fight of the Night” honours or if a fighter will land a specific strike. Prop bets add variety to your UFC betting options.
Live betting: Available with LeoVegas during fights, live betting lets you place wagers in real time as the action in the octagon unfolds. Odds shift dynamically during the mayhem based on the fight’s progress, making it perfect for those who have a knack for reading momentum shifts.
Key factors in UFC betting
There are several key factors to consider before placing a bet on a UFC fight. These aspects of UFC betting can help you identify the best UFC bets and find value in the odds. To make smarter, more informed UFC betting decisions, consider the following factors:
Fighter styles: MMA is packed with diverse fighting styles, such as strikers (who rely on punches and kicks) versus grapplers (who excel in wrestling and submissions). A striker facing a grappler can create intriguing betting opportunities, especially if one has a clear advantage. Every fighter has their own set of key attributes, and you can sharpen your betting decisions by learning how each of them operates.
Recent form and fight history: A fighter’s recent performances can indicate their current skill as well as their confidence level. Look at a fighter’s last three to five bouts to assess their momentum, consistency and style. It is also helpful to look out for patterns. Some fighters regularly struggle against expert grapplers, for example.
Reach, height, and stance advantages: Physical attributes matter in the UFC. A fighter with a longer reach should be able to control distance in striking exchanges better, while stance (orthodox vs. southpaw) can create tactical challenges.
Training camps and fight camps: The quality of a fighter’s training camp, including their coaches and sparring partners, can influence performance. Top camps often produce well-prepared fighters. The wrong camp environment can leave a fighter unprepared for action.
Weight cutting and weigh-in results: UFC fighters often cut significant weight to make their division’s limit. An arduous weight cut can lead to fatigue, which can impact performance. Watch weigh-in footage for signs of struggle and fine-tune your bets accordingly.
UFC weight classes and betting insights
The UFC features 12 different weight classes, each with its own set of unique characteristics that can influence betting strategies. Understanding these divisions is crucial for success in UFC betting. Here is a look at each weight class in detail, along with some MMA betting tips tailored to the dynamics of each division.
Heavyweight (265 lb / 120.2 kg)
The heavyweight division is known for its devastating knockout power, with fighters like Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich capable of delivering highlight-reel finishes. Fights in this division often end early due to the sheer force of the punches on show, making over/under rounds bets appealing.
This division is known for its unpredictability, with a single punch at any time having the potential to change outcomes. This means that backing underdogs often provides decent value.
Betting tip: Focus on underdog bets for fighters with proven knockout power, as upsets are common.
Light Heavyweight (205 lb / 93 kg)
Light heavyweights serve up a cocktail of power and speed. Fights can go the distance in this division, as the fighters involved tend to manage their pace effectively. Magomed Ankalaev, Alex Pereira and Jiří Procházka are some of the biggest names in the Light Heavyweight division right now.
Betting tip: Look for fighters who combine strong cardio and pacing as these attributes often lead to decision wins or late stoppages.
**Middleweight (185 lb / 84 kg)
Middleweight is currently one of the UFC’s deepest divisions in terms of talent, and it boasts technical strikers and submission specialists like Khamzat Chimaev, Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya. Grappling matchups are common, so understanding a fighter’s ground defence level is key.
Betting Tip: It can be smart to prioritise fighters with strong takedown defence when facing high-level grapplers, as this can prevent submission losses.
Welterweight (170 lb / 77 kg)
Welterweight bouts are often closely contested, and the division is usually populated by fighters with well-rounded skillsets. Five-round title fights are known to go the distance. Welterweight is one of the most competitive divisions in the UFC, with names like Kamaru Usman, Leon Edwards, Jack Della Maddalena, Shavkat Rakhmonov and Sean Brady battling for dominance.
Betting Tip: Study fighters’ wrestling defence and cardio before placing your bets as these factors are critical in gruelling, high-paced fights.
Lightweight (155 lb / 70 kg)
The lightweight division is known for its fast-paced, skilful battles with fighters like Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev currently setting the standard. Momentum plays a significant role in Lightweight bouts as winning streaks often reflect confidence and form.
**Betting Tip:**Bet on fighters who have hit recent winning streaks as they tend to carry powerful momentum into their high-stakes matchups.
Featherweight (145 lb / 66 kg)
Featherweight fights are all about speed and technical mastery, with fighters like Alexander Volkanovski excelling in striking, movement and ring craft. Precision and defence are critical in this division.
Betting Tip: Striking accuracy statistics can inform decisions here, while strong defensive footwork is also worth looking out for as these skills often lead to decision wins.
Bantamweight (135 lb / 61 kg)
Bantamweight fights are known for their rapid exchanges and high strike output, with stars like Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili some of the bigger names in that division right now. Decision outcomes are common due to the division’s technical nature.
Betting Tip: Over/under rounds markets are valuable options in the Bantamweight division because plenty of fights tend to go the distance due to the fighters’ durability.
Flyweight (125 lb / 56 kg)
The flyweight division is the UFC’s fastest and most explosive one, with non-stop action and high-volume striking the norm. Fighters like Demetrious Johnson set the standard for the division’s technical prowess in his pomp, and Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van are among those carrying the flag today.
Betting Tip: Pay attention to significant strikes and that all-important octagon control as these factors influence judges’ scoring when fights are close.
Women’s Featherweight (145 lb / 66 kg)
The women’s featherweight division tends to have a smaller talent pool, often leading to clear stylistic matchups. Fighters like Cris Cyborg dominate here with their powerful arsenal of strikes.
Betting Tip: Favourites are often reliable due to skill disparities, so consider moneyline bets on established names on fight cards.
Women’s Bantamweight (135 lb / 61 kg)
Women’s bantamweight is a division that features a mix of technical striking and grappling, with fighters like Kayla Harrison and Julianna Peña considered the star names at the moment.
Many competitors transition from other sports, bringing unique skills to the octagon. Fights in this division can be unpredictable.
Betting Tip: Watch for fighters who have boxing or judo backgrounds as their skills can create matchup advantages against less-skilled opponents.
Women’s Flyweight (125 lb / 56 kg)
Women’s flyweight offers balanced speed and power, with fighters like Valentina Shevchenko currently setting the bar. Submissions are more common than in heavier women’s divisions, so factor in those Jiu-Jitsu skills.
Betting Tip: Look for the fighters with the best grappling skills as submissions can offer value in method-of-victory bets.
Women’s Strawweight (115 lb / 52 kg)
Women’s strawweight is known for fast, high-volume striking, with fighters like Weili Zhang, Virna Jandiroba and Tatiana Suarez being the names to look out for. With limited knockout power, close fights are common. This makes judges’ scoring critical.
Betting Tip: Focus on fighters who land significant strikes and can control the tempo as these factors often sway decisions on the judges’ panel.
Popular UFC betting markets beyond the winner
Beyond the standard moneyline bets, UFC betting offers a diverse range of other markets to explore:
- Round betting: In round betting, you place a wager on the exact round a fight will end. For example, betting on a knockout artist to win in Round 1 has the potential to yield decent returns.
- Fight to go the distance / finish inside the distance: In this market, you’re betting on whether a fight will last all rounds or end early via KO/TKO or submission. This is ideal for bouts in which consistently durable fighters are involved.
- Double chance bets: These markets allow you to cover multiple outcomes in the same bout, such as a fighter winning by KO/TKO or decision, allowing bettors to reduce their risk while maintaining value.
UFC betting strategies for beginners
If you’re new to the UFC betting scene, these strategies can help you build confidence:
- Start small: In the beginning, focus on one weight class to develop your knowledge and expertise. Lightweight or welterweight are good starting points thanks to their depth and the frequency of events in that division.
- Compare odds: Check odds across platforms such as LeoVegas to find the best value for your bets. This tactic will get you the best bang for your buck.
- Use official UFC stats: Review fight replays and stats on the UFC website to understand fighters’ habits and strengths. There is a wealth of statistical information available, so be sure to make the most of it.
- Stay updated: Follow UFC news, injury reports and fight card changes as last-minute shifts can impact outcomes.
Responsible UFC betting
- Betting on UFC should never be a stressful experience. Here at LeoVegas, we want you to practice responsible betting with these guidelines:
- Set a bankroll limit: Decide how much you’re willing to spend and stick to it, regardless of wins or losses. Maintain control of your finances at all times.
- Avoid chasing losses: You should never increase the value of your bets to recover losses as this can lead to poor decisions and financial problems.
- Bet for entertainment: Treat UFC betting as a way to enhance your enjoyment of the sport overall. Betting should never be treated as a primary income source.
Why bet on UFC at LeoVegas?
LeoVegas stands out as a top platform for all of your UFC betting needs, offering:
- Competitive UFC betting odds: With LeoVegas, you’ll get great value on every UFC event, from prelims to main cards and title bouts.
- In-play and pre-fight markets: Bet before or during fights with a wide range of options on the LeoVegas UFC betting platform.
- Mobile-optimised sportsbook: Experience seamless live betting on the go on your phone or tablet with LeoVegas.
- Licensed and secure: LeoVegas is a fully licensed and trusted sports betting platform, ensuring that customers have a safe environment and fair betting at all times.