NFL Betting Guide
The National Football League, or the NFL, is the premier professional football league in the USA and widely considered one of the most popular sports for betting on the planet.
Every season, 32 teams compete across two conferences in the NFL, with a 17-game regular campaign preceding intense playoff action that culminates in the world-famous Super Bowl.
In addition to being a much-loved sporting spectacle, the NFL provides bettors with countless opportunities to get involved every year. With dozens of games, varied markets and guaranteed drama, there are chances to find value each week.
Whether you’re a seasoned bettor looking to sharpen your approach to American football betting or a newcomer learning how to bet on the NFL for the first time, LeoVegas’s NFL Betting Guide will explain everything you need to know.
From understanding the basics of NFL betting odds to learning advanced strategies, this guide will help you make smarter decisions when wagering on America’s most-watched sport.
Understanding NFL betting basics
Before diving head-first into betting strategies, it’s essential to understand the main markets that make up American football betting.
Moneyline bets
A moneyline bet is the simplest way to place a wager on the NFL. Here, you’ll be betting on which team will win a particular game. Each team is given pre-game odds, with favourites showing a minus (-) and underdogs a plus (+).
For example, if the New England Patriots are -150 against the New York Jets at +130, you’d need to stake £150 to win £100 on the Patriots, while a £100 bet on the Jets would return £130 if they pulled off an unexpected upset.
Point spread (handicap) betting
Because NFL games regularly feature mismatched teams, bookmakers look to balance the odds using a point spread (also called a handicap). The favourite must win by more than the spread to “cover,” while the underdog can lose by fewer points (or win outright) for a spread bet to succeed. For example, the Philadelphia Eagles might have a -7.5 spread to cover against the Dallas Cowboys, which means Philly must win by at least 8 points.
With this bet, instead of betting on the winner, you can bet on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in the same game. Bookmakers set a line, and bettors choose whether the final score will go “over” or “under” that number. For example, you might bet on over or under 47 total points in a game between the Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts.
Player props
Prop bets allow you to place wagers on individual player performances in games. Popular props include how many passing yards a quarterback will throw, how many receiving yards a player will accumulate, how many rushing yards someone might log, or how many touchdowns a running back will score. Studying matchups can be a particularly useful exercise to inform decisions here.
Futures
Futures markets, which work the same way as outright markets in soccer, let you bet on long-term outcomes, such as which team will win the Super Bowl, who will be named MVP (Most Valuable Player), or which teams will make the playoffs. Futures odds change throughout the season based on how teams in the NFL are performing.
Parlays
A parlay works the same way as an accumulator or acca wager. It combines multiple bets into one single ticket for higher potential payouts. For example, betting on three moneyline favourites together may significantly boost your odds, but all selections must win for the parlay to land. The more selections you include, the greater the odds will be. However, the more lines you add, the less chance your parlay will have of hitting the mark.
Key factors to consider before betting on the NFL
Betting successfully on the NFL requires more than just picking your favourite team to win. Key factors to consider before placing a bet on the NFL include:
Team form and recent performances: NFL teams can experience hot streaks or slumps, and form often carries over from week to week. Be ready to take advantage of form and recent performances in the markets.
Injuries to key players: Injuries to quarterbacks, wide receivers and defensive stars can dramatically shift a team’s chances. Always check the latest injury reports as the absence of a key performer can have a major impact on outcomes.
Home field advantage: The atmosphere of NFL stadiums can impact results, especially in places like Seattle or Kansas City, where the crowd noise can be deafening. Home field advantage can be a powerful determiner, so be sure to factor it into your betting strategies.
Weather conditions: Snow, rain, or high winds can affect a team’s passing and kicking game. Totals are particularly sensitive to weather, so scan forecasts on match day before placing your bets.
Head-to-head history: Divisional matchups often have unique dynamics in the NFL, with certain teams consistently outperforming others despite their overall records. Make sure to analyse head-to-head records and look for anything that jumps out.
NFL divisions and betting insights
Understanding the NFL’s divisions can help you to recognise patterns and trends. The NFL is split into the AFC (American Football Conference) and the NFC (National Football Conference), each with four divisions.
AFC East
- Teams: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, New York Jets
- Betting tip: Cold-weather games in Buffalo, New England, or New York late in the season can impact scoring, making unders a more attractive prospect.
AFC North
- Teams: Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Betting tip: Known for tough defenses and physical football, divisional matchups in the AFC North have experienced a low-scoring trend in recent years. Therefore, it makes sense to look to the unders markets for value here.
AFC South
- Teams: Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans
- Betting tip: Rebuilding teams often face playoff contenders in the AFC South, which can lead to some big scores and moments of unpredictability if an underdog clicks. Indeed, home underdogs in divisional games can provide good value, so look out for opportunities in that direction.
AFC West
- Teams: Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers
- Betting tip: High-scoring offenses, particularly Kansas City, have the potential to beat totals lines out west. As a result, the totals markets with bookmakers are frequently higher, especially in dome or warm-weather games, although value can still be found.
NFC East
- Teams: Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders
- Betting tip: This division, packed with long-standing rivalries, is historically unpredictable, with close contests common. With those factors aligned, divisional games are often tighter than the odds might suggest. This means that there are usually plenty of interesting betting avenues to explore in the NFC East.
NFC North
- Teams: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings
- Betting tip: Harsh late-season weather can lead to lower scores in the NFC North. Look for unders in outdoor December games in particular, where building momentum can be tricky.
NFC South
- Teams: Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Betting tip: Many teams down south play in domes or warmer climates, which can lead to higher-scoring contests. Overs are popular plays here for bettors aiming to take advantage of the prime scoring conditions in the NFC South.
NFC West
- **Teams: Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks
- Betting tip: A mix of elite defenses and explosive offenses makes this division fascinating. Look at style clashes that could have an effect on totals here.
Popular NFL betting markets beyond the basics
Beyond the popular moneylines and spreads in the NFL, there are several other exciting American Football betting markets to discover, all of which are available through LeoVegas:
Winning margin: Here, you’re predicting how many points a particular team will win by (e.g., 1–6 points, 7–12 points). For example, you might back the Washington Commanders to win by 7-12 points against the NY Giants. Any result outside of those parameters would be a losing bet.
Quarter/half betting: In these markets, you bet on which team will lead at halftime or after each quarter. The odds are generally better here than in standard match result markets, and this niche line can be particularly useful when backing a favourite.
Alternate spreads and totals: This bet type allows you to adjust the line for different odds, giving you greater flexibility. These bets work the same way as regular spreads; the only thing that differs is the value you select.
Live betting (in-play): NFL matches are dynamic, and odds shift throughout the game in response. With live betting, you can react to momentum changes in real time. Both team and player prop bets can be placed in-play.
NFL betting strategies
To become more successful at NFL betting, you have to put the work in. A more informed bettor is usually a smarter one, so consider applying these strategies and NFL betting tips to your wagering:
Specialise in divisions: With so many teams competing in the NFL, it can be difficult to round out your knowledge across such a broad spectrum. It might be wiser to focus on just one or two divisions instead of all of them to form a better understanding of trends and matchups.
Track injuries closely: NFL outcomes often hinge on star players’ availability. If a key quarterback is missing, for example, it can have a major impact on a team’s chances of winning. Similarly, the absence of a touchdown-scoring regular might take the edge off a team’s offensive output. Take note of any important injury issues before making any NFL predictions.
Manage your bankroll: The NFL season is long, and betting throughout the campaign requires a lot of discipline. Avoid staking too much on a single game and be sure to manage your bankroll properly to extend your play. Keep close control over your finances.
Use key stats: NFL is a stats-heavy game. Metrics such as yards per play, turnover differential, and red-zone efficiency can provide deeper insights than win-loss records. There are numerous NFL stats websites and statistical analysis social media accounts out there that can provide you with free insight. Try to become familiar with as many of them as possible.
Responsible NFL betting
Betting should always remain a positive experience, and here at LeoVegas, we are major advocates of responsible gambling. To stay in control of your betting, consider the following points:
Set a budget: Decide on a seasonal bankroll and stick to it rigidly. You should never bet more than you can afford to lose. Setting a budget will help you stay on top of your finances and should help you avoid problems.
Avoid chasing losses: Don’t make risky parlays to recover a bad weekend. Chasing losses can quickly result in empty pockets, so don’t make snap decisions in a bid to recoup a lost bet. Stay smart, and only bet within your budget.
Bet with strategy, not emotion: Avoid backing your favourite team purely out of loyalty. Instead, do your homework and let sound strategy and statistical logic drive your betting choices.
Why bet on the NFL at LeoVegas?
When it comes to placing wagers, our LeoVegas NFL betting platform offers a trusted, mobile-friendly package with competitive advantages:
- Competitive Betting odds: Covering every NFL game, including playoffs and the Super Bowl, LeoVegas has competitive odds and prices for every NFL market.
- Variety of markets: From team and player props to in-play betting, parlays and NFL futures, LeoVegas caters to all betting styles and offers extensive NFL markets.
- Mobile betting: The LeoVegas sportsbook is designed for smooth operation on smartphones and tablets, making it straightforward to bet on the NFL on the move.
- Licensed and secure: An established and trusted brand in sports betting, LeoVegas is fully licensed and regulated, ensuring safety and trustworthiness for users.