Match Prediction: Italy vs Albania (Dortmund, 21:00) UEFA European Championship 2024
Historically, picking a winner between these two nations would have been pretty straightforward. Predicting what Italy will do on the international stage, however, is a challenging task at this moment in time. Nobody would have expected that they would not qualify for two consecutive World Cups, and even fewer would have predicted they would be the holders of this tournament. On the other hand, Albania has only qualified for the Euros once before, so players and fans alike will be relishing the thought of playing on the grandest stage of them all.
How did they qualify?
Albania wasn't in the most challenging group; however, the group did involve Poland and the Czech Republic, two nations used to qualifying for major footballing events. A nervy draw to Moldova secured qualification, and they ultimately finished top of the league, which was an impressive achievement.
The Italians qualified dramatically, drawing to Ukraine, which meant they finished second in their group. It is generally accepted that Ukraine were robbed of a last-minute penalty, which would have dropped the Italians to third. Thankfully for the Italians, this decision meant they didn't have to endure the stress of the playoffs.
Team Analysis
Italy, as alluded to aren't having the greatest time on the international stage and can count themselves fortunate they qualified. Due to their lack of attacking talent, we expect to see a pragmatic Italian side, which some might argue suits them well. We don't expect this Italian team to be that good on the eye, but they seem to turn it on when it matters the most.
Albania only conceded four goals in their qualifying group, and this tells you all you need to know about how they will set up. They will play to their strengths this tournament, hoping to keep clean sheets, and if they manage to do that, you can win any game of football. We are still backing Italy for the win, but this game could go either way.
Players to watch
If the Italians have any chance of defending the trophy they won against the odds four years ago, they will rely on these two men below to have outstanding tournaments.
- Gianluigi Donnarumma: This imposing goalkeeper was the hero for the Italians last tournament, saving three of England's penalties in the final shootout. Considering their frailties, he will need another outstanding tournament if they are to achieve anything close to what they did last tournament.
- Federico Chiesa: This minute forward is one of Italy's rare flair players, and he will also have to play well for the Italians to advance far in this tournament.
Albania is not a team full of superstars. These two below, though, need to have a good tournament to qualify from this group.
- Armando Broja: The Chelsea forward has four in 19 for the nation and is not a bad shout for a goal. However, Albania fans will be concerned regarding his lack of playing time at club level
- Elseid Hysaj: This 30-year-old plays as a regular fullback for Lazio. He is not a flair player but should offer some form of solidity to Albania's defence
Prediction
We have to favour Italy for this one since they have better players and history on their side. This might seem like a mismatch to the casual fan, but it shouldn't be. Albania have proven they have a lot of steel and should not be intimidated by an Italian side that can't be favourably compared to other Italian teams of the past.