Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul Betting Tips & Preview
The last mega fight of 2025 takes place on Friday night as Anthony Joshua returns to the ring for the first time since September of last year against Jake Paul in Miami.
Joshua is a two-time heavyweight world champion with a 28-4 record since making his debut in 2013. The 2012 Olympic gold medal winner has 25 stoppages and was on a four-fight winning streak before coming unstuck as he was knocked out when challenging Daniel Dubois for the IBF world title.
Jake Paul has compiled a 12-1 record since his debut in 2020. The American started his career in unconventional fashion as he initially found fame as a social media star and used that platform to face other influencers, before graduating to taking on MMA fighters and finally a couple of out-and-out boxers.
Paul’s last two fights have been wins over stars of yesteryear, claiming points victories over Mike Tyson and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Paul is making his debut at heavyweight and is also facing a significantly higher level of opposition than he has previously fought. El Gallo is a 15/2 underdog, Joshua is 1/10 and a draw is 19/1.
Selections
Joshua should make light work of Paul
Paul appears convinced he can stun the world by beating Joshua, but in reality this should be far too big of an ask for the 28-year-old.
The Cleveland-native has largely campaigned at cruiserweight over the course of his career and has just one fight on his CV against a genuine active boxer, a split decision loss to Tommy Fury back in 2023.
Joshua may have been out of the ring for a while and he might not be quite the unstoppable force he was in the early stages of his career, winning a world title in his 16th professional outing, but he has more than enough power to engineer an early finish against Paul.
AJ was put down four times by Dubois last year, but he still wobbled his compatriot in the midst of that onslaught and prior to that he stopped Robert Helenius, inflicted a first-knockout defeat on Otto Wallin and blew away UFC legend Francis Ngannou inside two rounds.
The only advantage Paul really has is his speed and he will try and stay out of range, but at some point Joshua will get an opportunity and he will probably only need one chance to end this contest early.
An early finish a strong angle
A Joshua stoppage is comfortably the most likely result and that is reflected in the prices. A better value play is taking a look at the total rounds market and under 2.5 rounds looks a solid pick.
Paul will try and use his movement to avoid getting dragged into any exchanges but he is still a novice fighter, while Joshua is incredibly experienced.
AJ has had 24 rounds with Oleksandr Usyk, losing both fights, but he did enjoy a bit of success in stages against the elusive Ukrainian, so he should be able to work Paul out fairly quickly.
In the highly unlikely event that Paul wins, his best chances are likely to come early as well and Friday’s headline event could be over very quickly.
Round 1 win chance for AJ
Following on from the above, Joshua’s chance could come as early as the first round.
Defeat would be catastrophic for the Briton. It would put a huge dent on his legacy and would effectively end his career, wrecking any chance of a blockbuster showdown with longtime British rival Tyson Fury in 2026.
Joshua may not necessarily go looking for a knockout from the off, but as soon as an opportunity comes his way he will take it.
Paul has vowed to use his speed and movement, but there hasn’t been any evidence in his previous fights to suggest he has the skill set to remain elusive for a significant period of time, so Joshua could be in line for an easy and quick night’s work.