Predictions for the 2025/26 Leading Goal Scorer (NHL)
The 2025/26 NHL season is shaping up to deliver another fierce race for the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy.
Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl led the league last year with 52 goals, but plenty of challengers are ready to take his crown. Drawing on fresh stats from the 2024/25 campaign along with analytics from hockey experts, we’ve ranked the 10 players most likely to lead the NHL in goals this season.
This list features both well-known stars and rising snipers who can tilt a game with one swing of the stick. Each contender has been evaluated on recent performance, team situation, and natural scoring ability. Some are chasing another record-setting year, while others are primed for a breakout run that could put them in the headlines.
Here are the top 10 players to watch for 2025/26, counted down from dark horses to the favourites with the best shot at claiming the Richard Trophy.
10. Jack Hughes – New Jersey Devils
Jack Hughes has emerged as one of the NHL’s most electrifying young forwards. In 2022/23, he broke out with 43 goals and 99 points, proving he can be among the league’s top scorers. Some injury interruptions marred the 2024/25 season, yet Hughes still maintained a point-per-game pace and showcased his finishing ability, which makes him a consistent threat. Now 24, he’s entering his prime years with four straight seasons at that level of production. The Devils play an up-tempo style, and Hughes drives that attack with his speed and creativity. Few players create as many chances, and he isn’t afraid to fire pucks from anywhere in the offensive zone.
His 336 shots in 2022/23 underlined that volume, and even last year, his per-game totals kept him near the league leaders. With strong support around him, he has every tool to improve his numbers even further.
A 50-goal season is within reach if Hughes can stay on the ice consistently. That kind of surge would vault him into the Rocket Richard conversation. His trajectory points upward, and with New Jersey trending as a contender, Hughes definitely belongs among the top 10 names to watch this year.
9. Alex Ovechkin – Washington Capitals
Any discussion about goal scoring still begins with Alex Ovechkin. At 40, the Capitals icon refuses to slow down. Last season, he struck 44 times in only 65 games, a blistering pace for a veteran in his third decade of NHL hockey. That run also saw him overshadow Wayne Gretzky with his 895th career goal, earning his place as the league’s all-time scoring leader. His trademark one-timer from the left circle remains the most feared shot in the sport, particularly with the man advantage.
Ovechkin will chase his 10th Rocket Richard Trophy this season, an award he practically owned through the 2000s and 2010s. Critics point to age as a hurdle, but he continues to silence those doubts by producing like few ever have.
Washington overhauled its roster and climbed near the top of the Eastern Conference for stretches of last season, giving him the support needed to stay among the league’s most dangerous shooters.
The biggest question is availability. He missed 17 games last season, and a full schedule could push him into the 45-to-50 goal range once again. Even if he lands closer to 40, Ovechkin’s instincts, power play presence, and relentless drive keep him firmly in the discussion.
8. William Nylander – Toronto Maple Leafs
William Nylander is coming off the best scoring season of his career, setting himself up as one of the league’s most dangerous wingers. The 27-year-old buried 45 goals in 2024/25, shattering his previous high and finishing second in the league behind Leon Draisaitl. His quick release, speed through open ice, and sharper finishing around the crease turned him into a nightly threat for Toronto.
This summer brought change in Toronto with Mitch Marner dealt to Vegas, leaving Nylander and Auston Matthews to carry even more of the offensive load. He has already proven he lives for those moments, thriving under pressure and forming one of hockey’s most lethal scoring tandems alongside Matthews. The trade could also give him more top-unit power play time, further boosting his shot volume.
Nylander signed a long-term extension in 2024, giving him both security and confidence heading into this season. If he delivers another 45-goal campaign, or even pushes higher, his name will be right in the Rocket Richard mix. Surrounded by talent on a team built to score, he has the tools and opportunity to challenge for the crown in 2025/26.
7. Mikko Rantanen – Dallas Stars
Mikko Rantanen’s arrival in Dallas has the potential to reshape both his career and the Stars’ offence. The 28-year-old winger played for three teams by 2024/25 before signing with the Stars in a March trade and signing an eight-year, $96 million extension to remain in Texas long term.
Now, he enters his first full season with the Stars, expected to skate alongside Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson on what could be one of the most dangerous lines in the NHL. Rantanen has already proven he can fill the net. He scored 55 goals with Colorado in 2022/23, the third-highest total in the league that season, and has multiple 30-goal campaigns.
Last year was more turbulent, with stops on three different rosters, but he still managed to finish with 32 goals. With stability in Dallas and a clear role from opening night, his production could climb quickly.
At 6’4” with a heavy shot and the ability to protect the puck in traffic, Rantanen is built to dominate around the net.
He’ll see top power play minutes and benefit from linemates who create space and chances. With fresh motivation in a new setting, he has a real shot at another 50-goal campaign and a place in the Rocket Richard conversation.
6. Tage Thompson – Buffalo Sabres
Tage Thompson has evolved into one of the league’s most imposing scorers. At 6’6”, the Sabres centre combines size with a blistering shot that makes him nearly impossible to contain.
He has scored 40 or more goals in two of the last three seasons, with totals of 47, 29, and 44. In 2024/25, he tallied 44 in 76 games, tying for third in the NHL. He also extended his streak of 240+ shots to four straight seasons. His mix of volume shooting and accuracy keeps him in the Rocket Richard discussion year after year.
Thompson enters 2025/26 with no shortage of motivation. He has made it clear that ending Buffalo’s long playoff drought is a personal mission, and a spot with Team USA at the 2026 Olympics is also within reach. The Sabres’ attack runs through him, and he thrives as their primary scoring option. His heavy one-timer, range from distance, and power play presence give him opportunities to pile up goals every night.
At 27, Thompson is squarely in his prime and still adding new wrinkles to his game. Reaching 50 goals is the next step, and with his role, skill set, and drive, it feels within reach. If he hits that milestone, he’ll be right in the thick of the Richard Trophy race.
5. Connor McDavid – Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid is best known for being the NHL’s most complete offensive force, but his scoring touch is every bit as lethal as his playmaking. Just two seasons ago, he erupted for 64 goals to claim his first Rocket Richard Trophy, proving that when he looks to shoot, he can outscore anyone.
Last season told a different story, with only 26 goals in 67 games as he leaned heavily into distributing, finishing with 74 assists. A midseason injury and his tendency to defer to Leon Draisaitl factored into that dip.
Despite the lower total, McDavid remains a prime prospect to rebound in 2025/26. At 28, he’s still in his peak years and drives an Edmonton power play that punishes opponents whenever he decides to be aggressive. He scored 64 goals on 352 shots that season, a testament to how often he looked to finish rather than defer. If he returns to that shoot-first mentality, the 50-goal plateau is well within reach.
McDavid’s speed and puck control create chances that most players never see, and with defences fixating on Draisaitl, he could find extra space to strike. The potential is limitless, and another Richard Trophy is firmly in play if he makes scoring a priority again.
4. Kirill Kaprizov – Minnesota Wild
Kirill Kaprizov remains the heartbeat of Minnesota’s attack and one of the league’s most gifted wingers. Even with injuries cutting short his 2024/25 season, he scored 25 goals and 56 points in just 41 games, a pace that translates to 50 goals over a full schedule. Since entering the NHL in 2020, he has ranked near the top in goals per game, shown by a 47-goal season in 2021/22 and another 40 the following year. With his quick release and ability to create from tight spaces, he consistently finds ways to beat goaltenders.
All signs point to Kaprizov bouncing back strong in 2025/26. Reports out of camp suggest he’s fully recovered and primed to resume an elite display. Projections already peg him for 40 goals and 100 points, though expectations inside Minnesota go even higher.
Linemate Matt Boldy’s continued growth should prevent defences from focusing solely on Kaprizov, while the Wild’s power play will run directly through him, giving him a constant platform to unleash his shot.
Minnesota may not boast the league’s deepest offence, but Kaprizov changes that equation every night. If he logs a full season, a push toward 50 goals is realistic, putting him firmly in the Rocket Richard race.
3. David Pastrnak – Boston Bruins
David Pastrnak has proved himself as one of the NHL’s most consistent and prolific goal scorers.
In 2024/25, he scored 43 goals and posted 106 points, finishing second in the league with 319 shots, just one behind Nathan MacKinnon. His track record includes a Rocket Richard Trophy in 2019/20 and a 61-goal season in 2022/23, securing his place among the league’s elite finishers.
At 29, he remains in his prime and now carries the mantle as Boston’s offensive leader. Boston may lack the depth of years past, but Pastrnak’s skill set ensures he will continue to generate scoring chances in bunches. His wicked one-timer, quick-release snapshot, and knack for finding seams in defensive coverage make him dangerous even when opponents focus on shutting him down. Playing on his off-wing gives him ideal angles for power-play strikes, where he remains one of the league’s most reliable weapons.
What sets Pastrnak apart is his combination of consistency and volume. He rarely goes through prolonged droughts, thrives in high-pressure situations, and stays on the ice night after night. Another 50-goal season is well within reach, and with Boston relying heavily on him, a second Rocket Richard Trophy is a realistic outcome.
2. Auston Matthews – Toronto Maple Leafs
Auston Matthews has set the standard for goal scoring over the past five years, and he enters 2025/26 looking to reclaim the Rocket Richard Trophy. Already a three-time winner, he reached a modern-era peak with 69 goals in 2023-24, the highest total since the award’s creation.
Injuries limited him to 67 games last season, which kept him out of the race, but he still managed 33 goals in that span. With a new contract signed and his prime years still ahead, Matthews is set for another massive campaign.
Toronto’s lineup looks different without Mitch Marner, but that change only amplifies Matthews’ role as the team’s primary finisher. Whether paired with William Nylander or supported by new additions, he will be the point of the attack. His lightning-fast release, ability to beat goaltenders from range, and dominance in the slot make him one of the hardest players in the world to defend against.
On the power play, Matthews will continue to serve as the main shooter, a role that has fueled his previous scoring explosions. History shows he rebounds strongly after quieter seasons, and another 60-goal effort is very much in reach. With Toronto leaning heavily on him, Matthews remains one of the top favourites for the 2025/26 goal-scoring crown.
1. Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton Oilers
Leon Draisaitl enters 2025/26 as the favourite to repeat as the NHL’s goal-scoring leader. The German star captured his first Rocket Richard Trophy last season with 52 goals in 71 games, marking his third 50-goal year and sixth with at least 40. He has been one of the league’s most reliable snipers since 2018, combining a lethal shot with size, strength, and an ability to dominate both on the power play and at even strength. His one-timer from the right circle is as feared as any in hockey.
At 29, Draisaitl is firmly in his prime and perfectly positioned for another monster season. Edmonton’s power play has been historically efficient, and his chemistry with Connor McDavid ensures a steady stream of high-quality chances. He added 16 power-play tallies last year and consistently ranks near the top in that category. Durable and trusted with heavy minutes, he is expected to surpass 1,000 career points this season, putting himself among the league’s elite.
Oddsmakers are split on the early favourite between Draisaitl and Auston Matthews. With his track record, shooting volume, and role on one of hockey’s most explosive offences, Draisaitl could not only match last year’s 52 but also push into the 55–60 range. Another Rocket Richard would only add to his growing legacy.