Predicting the 2025-26 NBA MVP
The NBA’s MVP award has always been tied to dominance, team success and, of course, individual brilliance. Last season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander checked every box: Oklahoma City won a league-best 68 games, captured the championship and he claimed both the regular-season MVP and Finals MVP.
Entering the 2025/26 campaign, he aims to defend the most prestigious individual honour in basketball, a feat achieved by only a handful of players. This year’s race, however, is wide open.
Nikola Jokić remains a contender, Luka Dončić takes centre stage in Los Angeles, and rising stars like Anthony Edwards could make a real push. History shows voters tend to reward the best player on an elite team, and fresh storylines often decide tight races.
With so many players in their prime, the MVP chase promises drama from start to finish. Whether Gilgeous-Alexander repeats, a former winner returns to the top or a new name breaks through, the award will once again highlight the best of the NBA’s talent.
Top MVP Contenders
Below are the players most likely to shape this season’s MVP race.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters the new season as the defending MVP, reigning scoring champion, and leader of a Thunder team that posted the NBA’s best record on its way to a championship. At just 27, he is firmly in his prime and has already become the centrepiece of what could be a dynasty in Oklahoma City.
Last year, he averaged 32.7 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.0 rebounds on elite efficiency, driving a Thunder offence that ranked among the league’s best. His play elevated Oklahoma City from a promising young team to a title winner, and voters rewarded him with both the MVP and Finals MVP awards. If he delivers similar numbers and the Thunder stay near the top of the standings, he will be a strong favourite to repeat.
Only Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić have gone back-to-back in the last decade, and Gilgeous-Alexander could join that exclusive club. Voters now recognize his value at the highest level, and in preseason expert polls, he was already ranked among the top three projected candidates for the 2026 season. No longer a dark horse, he is viewed as one of the league’s most reliable superstars.
The bar, however, has been set incredibly high. Replicating a season with that level of dominance is never easy, and team context could also play a role. Coming off a championship, Oklahoma City may pace itself in the regular season or share the load more evenly across its deep roster. If that happens, Gilgeous-Alexander’s raw numbers could dip slightly, leaving the door open for another contender.
Even with those factors, it is clear that if he performs anywhere near the level he reached last year, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will remain a top-tier candidate. With his skill set, role, and team success, he is in a position to make a serious push for back-to-back MVP honours.
Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets)
Nikola Jokić is already a three-time MVP and continues to build his case as one of the greatest centres in basketball history. Last season, he delivered career-high marks in scoring and assists, averaging 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists per game while leading Denver to 50 wins and a seven-game Western Conference semifinal. At 30, he shows no signs of slowing and remains the heartbeat of the Nuggets’ offence.
His 2024/25 season was statistically remarkable. Jokić became the first player in NBA history to finish top three in points, rebounds and assists in the same year, and he nearly won MVP again, finishing as runner-up to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Many observers had him as the late-season frontrunner, and preseason projections place him at or near the top of most MVP boards, reflecting his steady dominance and a real chance to claim a fourth award.
Narrative may also work in his favour. Few players in league history have reached four MVPs, and voters know the significance. Denver’s summer adds (Cameron Johnson and Tim Hardaway Jr. on the wings, plus Jonas Valančiūnas backing up the five and Bruce Brown returning) should give Jokić even more spacing and depth, potentially maximizing his playmaking.
The biggest obstacle may be voter fatigue. Some voters hesitate to keep rewarding the same star, especially when others post eye-catching seasons. If Denver lands around 50 to 55 wins and another team pushes toward the mid-60s, that team’s star could gain an edge. Jokić also competes with his own standard; sustaining near triple-double averages is a high bar.
Even with those hurdles, Jokić remains one of the favourites. If he plays close to a full season and posts another dominant line, his chances of a fourth MVP are strong. Given his consistency and the weight of history, he enters 2025/26 as one of the most likely names to lift the Michael Jordan Trophy again.
Luka Dončić (Los Angeles Lakers)
Luka Dončić has long been considered an MVP‑calibre talent, and now he enters his first full season with the Los Angeles Lakers. After a mid‑season trade last year, he averaged 28.2 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.5 assists in 28 games with his new team, immediately making his presence felt. At 26, with five All‑NBA First Team selections already to his name, he has the profile of a superstar ready to break through.
The stage in Los Angeles could provide the perfect backdrop. With LeBron James nearing 40, this is increasingly viewed as the Luka era for the Lakers, and the spotlight that comes with wearing purple and gold will amplify every performance. Dončić has transformed his body in the off‑season for improved conditioning, and reports suggest he looks sharper than ever. With his scoring, playmaking and ability to dominate possessions, he has the skill set to produce MVP‑level numbers.
The presence of LeBron may actually help his case. If the Lakers secure one of the West’s top seeds, voters will likely credit Dončić as the driving force behind their success, given James’s age and a retooled roster around Dončić, including Deandre Ayton. A statistical line around 30 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists per game is not out of reach, and those numbers would be hard to ignore if paired with a top record.
There are challenges to consider. Sharing touches with James and a deeper supporting cast might trim his raw scoring average, and his defence has often been criticized.
However, if he continues to make recent strides in that regard, his overall candidacy will strengthen. Injuries and the grind of a tough Western Conference schedule are also potential obstacles, but if Dončić stays healthy and keeps the Lakers near the top, his narrative and production could align.
All the ingredients are in place for Dončić to claim his first MVP. Between his talent, the Lakers’ platform and the appetite for a fresh storyline, he has as strong a case as anyone to emerge as the league’s most valuable player this season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
Giannis Antetokounmpo is already a two-time MVP, an NBA champion and a Finals MVP, yet he continues to produce at an extraordinary level. Last season, he quietly averaged 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 6.5 assists, numbers that would be considered MVP-calibre in nearly any year. Still, he finished third in voting as Milwaukee’s season ended in disappointment. Now 30 and entering his 13th season, he remains one of the league’s most dominant forces.
A resurgent Bucks campaign could push him back to the top of the MVP conversation. The roster has been reshaped again, with Myles Turner added to give Giannis more spacing and defensive support. If Milwaukee claims the East’s best record while Antetokounmpo posts his usual monster stat lines, voters will have a strong reason to place him high on their ballots. Narrative also works in his favour, as it has been several years since his last MVP and voter fatigue has faded.
Giannis’s defensive impact could be another factor. In past years, he has paired MVP production with Defensive Player of the Year-level play, and a Bucks defence anchored by him and Turner could remind voters of his all-around dominance. Combine that with the motivation to rebound from two straight early playoff exits, and there is a strong case for a bounce-back MVP run.
The questions primarily concern health and team trust. He battled a minor Achilles injury during last year’s playoffs, and while he is expected to be ready, the Bucks may monitor his workload carefully. There is also the matter of voter psychology: despite MVP being a regular-season award, some may discount Milwaukee’s success until they prove it in the postseason. Additionally, his long-standing struggles with free throws and shooting continue to be areas of criticism, particularly in comparison to more polished offensive stars like Jokić or Dončić.
Even with those caveats, Antetokounmpo is too talented to ignore. By his standards, last season fell short and a motivated Giannis has historically been one of the most dangerous players in the league. If Milwaukee climbs back to the top of the standings, expect him to be firmly in the MVP mix once again.
Kevin Durant (Houston Rockets)
Kevin Durant enters the season as the most experienced contender in the MVP conversation. At 36, he remains a model of elite production, averaging 26.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.2 assists last year. He did not qualify for All-NBA because he played 62 games, which fell short of the 65-game minimum. This summer, he made headlines by being traded to the Houston Rockets in a record‑setting seven‑team deal, placing him at the centre of one of the league’s boldest moves.
Durant’s candidacy may surprise some, given his age, but his talent and narrative cannot be dismissed. Pre‑season panels and markets generally slot him in the top tier of candidates, if not the inner circle. Houston presents a fresh storyline: Durant now leads a rising Rockets team that has been stockpiling talent, and if he can elevate them into true contention, voters will notice. A 36‑year‑old Durant guiding the Rockets to a top seed while putting up elite scoring nights would be a powerful narrative.
His game has aged gracefully, built on shooting and skill rather than pure athleticism. He remains one of the most efficient scorers in basketball, capable of producing 30 points almost effortlessly. Houston is likely to lean on him as its offensive anchor, and the opportunity to add another chapter to his legacy will be a driving force. Voters often gravitate toward stories of enduring greatness, and Durant fits that mould if the season breaks his way.
The concerns are familiar ones. Durability is always a concern, as he has missed stretches in recent seasons due to injuries. Houston also features other scoring options, and his minutes may be carefully managed to preserve him for the postseason. The Rockets’ health will matter too, with Fred VanVleet’s torn ACL potentially increasing the load on Durant as a creator. Team success will also be pivotal; if Houston falls outside the top two seeds, it becomes difficult for Durant to edge past stars leading dominant teams.
Still, Durant remains an intriguing candidate. If he can stay healthy and produce at his usual efficient clip while pushing Houston into the upper tier of the Western Conference, he could mount a legitimate challenge. A late‑career MVP would be a remarkable achievement, and among active players, Durant is one of the few with both the pedigree and skill to make that possibility real.
Other Options (The Dark Horses)
A few other names deserve mention as dark-horse MVP candidates.
Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves)
Anthony Edwards is the most intriguing of the group. On the cusp of superstardom, he has already finished seventh in MVP voting and continues to climb. If Minnesota secures a top seed in the West and Edwards averages close to 28 points with a broader all-around impact, he could make the leap into serious MVP talks.
Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns)
Devin Booker is another outside option. With Kevin Durant gone, he has full control of Phoenix’s offence and the chance to post career-best numbers. A season with 30 points and close to 8 assists per game would keep him in the conversation, but the Suns would likely need to exceed expectations and push near the top of the conference for Booker to realistically challenge the front-runners.
Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers)
Joel Embiid, a former MVP, cannot be entirely ruled out, but he looks more like a long shot.
Philadelphia is retooling and his health remains a lingering concern after he averaged 23.8 points in 19 games last season.
Stephen Curry & Jayson Tatum
Stephen Curry and Jayson Tatum also fall into the “never say never” category. Curry would likely need a historic year at age 37 to claim a third MVP, while Tatum could emerge if Boston dominates the East behind his leadership and production.
Ultimately, the MVP field runs deep, but the true favourites remain the players already discussed in detail. Still, the league is unpredictable, and a breakout season or unexpected team surge could always push one of these dark horses into the spotlight.
Voter Considerations
MVP voting follows clear patterns. Winners almost always come from the top two or top three seeds, as voters reward great players on elite teams. That could favour Nikola Jokić if Denver climbs in the standings, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will want Oklahoma City to maintain an elite record.
Narrative also matters. Possible storylines this season include Jokić’s push for a fourth MVP, Luka Dončić leading the Lakers, or Giannis Antetokounmpo bouncing back after recent playoff frustration. Kevin Durant could even benefit from a late-career run if Houston rises near the top of the West.
Advanced metrics carry weight, too. Jokić led categories such as PER and win shares last season, and if that continues, voters may feel compelled to reward him. Voter fatigue plays a role as well; SGA could feel it after winning in 2025, while Jokić may be positioned to benefit after finishing runner-up.
Availability matters. The 65-game minimum can remove candidates who miss time, giving an edge to stars who stay healthy and available.
Ultimately, voters prefer dominant numbers, elite records, and compelling stories. Jokić and Dončić fit that mould best on paper, but surprises are always possible if a team or player exceeds expectations.
Final Pick
Nikola Jokić is the projected winner of the 2025–26 MVP.
Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are expected to deliver MVP-calibre seasons, but the circumstances favour Jokić. He enters as the pre-season favourite, and Denver appears positioned for a stronger regular season than last year.
If Jokić produces another statistical masterpiece close to a triple-double while guiding the Nuggets to a top seed, voters will have little reason to overlook him. His consistency, historical significance and team success align with the factors that usually decide MVP races.
A likely top five features Jokić, Dončić, Gilgeous-Alexander, Antetokounmpo and Edwards.
SGA may face voter fatigue after last year’s win, while Dončić could contend strongly but fall short if the Lakers do not secure a top seed. The battle will remain close throughout the year, but Jokić holds the clearest path to the award.