Baccarat Strategies
What Baccarat strategies exist?
Baccarat is an extremely popular card game played in online and land-based casinos across the globe. Although relatively straightforward in nature, there are a number of strategies deployed by players eager to enhance their chances of winning streak and securing a profit. These methodologies are considerably wide-ranging in relation to their processes, productivity, and complexity.
Most strategies revolve around a core theory of positive or negative progressive betting. These wagering styles balance the probability of winning and losing and therefore boost the possibility of profitable gameplay. However, to optimize net returns in casino games, players must stick diligently to their respective approaches, and execute them with accuracy. Drifting from the principles of a Baccarat strategy, or failing to implement their guidelines effectively, could lead to significant player losses.
We review the top strategies for playing baccarat.
Golden Eagle
Cultivated by prominent Chinese mathematician, Ri Chang, the Golden Eagle strategy is harnessed to produce consistent positive results for extended periods of time.
The basic premise of Chang’s approach is to accentuate earnings on winning streaks by betting aggressively, and minimize losses on a losing streak or runs by wagering conservatively. Players adopt the ‘offensive’ and ‘defensive’ components of this strategy to do this within a game.
When a favourable sequence materialises, players should incrementally increase their bet, to ‘cash in’ on their positive run. Conversely, players must revert to the table limit minimum bet when a more challenging period occurs. The theory is that earnings generated double your bet during winning streaks provide enough coverage to negotiate less profitable periods.
Baccarat players competing in tournaments and events often use this method, as its long-term, pragmatic outlook enables users to retain their seat at the baccarat table for long spells.
To execute the Golden Eagle strategy, players should setup with a bankroll of 110 chips, comprised of 5 separate buy-in volumes of 22 chips each. This affords the player the opportunity to lose up to 11 hands consecutively without the buy-in amount completely eroding. If successfully implemented, the player stands to make a 22.7% profit on each buy-in round.
Martingale Baccarat Betting Strategy
One of the most widely utilised betting strategies, amongst experienced players, is the Martingale system. Reportedly developed in nineteenth-century France, although its naming origins are attributed to a London-based casino owner.
Its principles are embedded in ‘Main Revision’ theory, operating on the basic assumption that any earnings will eventually align to average probabilities. In the game of Baccarat, mean average winnings are expressed via the RTP (return to player) rate. Therefore, in essence, the Martingale strategy proposes that players will generate earnings in line with this measure.
Method:
- Player loses: ‘Double-down’ (double their original bet) on the next game.
- Continue the process until a win occurs.
- Player wins: Revert back to the original stake, placed at the beginning of the cycle.
The basic objective of the strategy is to deliver a winning round at a late stage in the sequence, which will maximise potential overall earnings.
However, players should consider the following risks:
- A generous bankroll volume is needed to accommodate the strategy, as ‘doubling-down’ can become very expensive, very quickly.
- If too many successive losses are encountered, the player may reach the table’s bet limit and therefore be unable to continue ‘doubling-down’.
- Approach is prohibited in some casinos.
Banker Betting Baccarat Strategy
The most straightforward and secure Baccarat strategy, is to consistently place bets on the banker. This conclusion is drawn from reviewing the accompanying house edge and winning odds of each potential play baccarat outcome.
Despite a 5% commission being leveraged by the casino on the banker bets, players have a better chance of winning banker bets being successful as this is the most likely outcome to emerge.
| BET | HOUSE EDGE | WIN POTENTIAL |
| Banker | 1.06% | 45.87% |
| Player | 1.36% | 44.63% |
| Tie | 14.4% | 9.51% |
The Fibonacci Sequence
This methodology hinges on the ‘Fibonacci’ sequence, a specific numbering order which states the next figure in the pattern must equal the sum of the two previous numbers (1, 3, 5, 8, 13 etc.)
Players must increase their bets, in respect to odds of winning the ascending number sequence, each time they lose a round. The central concept of the strategy is to earn back any losses by increasing the returns value when a successful game lands. When a player breaks the sequence and wins a bet, the wagering volume defaults back to the beginning of the cycle.
Example (values x10 on number sequence referenced above):
- Original bet: $10 Outcome: Loss
- Second bet: $20 Outcome: Loss
- Third Bet: $30 Outcome: Loss
- Fourth Bet: $50 Outcome: Win
- Fifth Bet: $10 (re-sets to original bet)
The Paroli System
The Paroli system is sometimes classed as the ‘reverse Martingale’ approach, harnessing a positive (rather than negative) double-down strategy, whereby players double bet values each time they win, as opposed to each time they lose.
The cycle is broken when a player loses a third card, or three rounds are won consecutively. In this circumstance, players re-set to their original stake. In correspondence to the Martingale concept, players will hope this trigger point (which is this time a loss rather than a win) arrives at a late stage in the cycle.
The Labouchere
‘The Labouchere’ strategy demands a more intense level of calculation in deciding player actions. Although using a more conservative negative progression sequence than the Martingale approach, it’s still aligned with the principle of continually increasing stakes in response to losing bets. Nevertheless, players adopting the Labouchere negative progression system will tend to recover losses via several modest wins, as opposed to through one major victory.
Players mobilize their own bet sequences dependent on a winnings target and their bankroll capability.
Example:
- Player target: $40.
- Number sequence selected that accumulates to a total of 40 i.e., 6,7,8,9, and 10.
- Initial bet - the sum of first and last numbers in sequence: 6 + 10 = $16.
Possible outcomes (& actions):
- Player loses: Adds last bet value to the end of chain i.e., 16. Next bet is sum of first and last numbers in ‘new’ sequence: 6 + 16 = $22
- Player wins: Cut-out first and last number of the sequence i.e., 6 + 10. Next bet is equal to sum of ‘new’ first and last numbers i.e., 7+9 = $16 Should players want to scale down the size of their stakes, increasing the volume of numbers in the sequence will minimize the variance, subsequently protecting the bankroll for a longer duration.
The D’Alembert
Using a simple method hypothesised by eighteenth-century French mathematician Jean Le Rond D’Alembert, this strategy recommends players adjust wagering values dependent on the outcome of their previous bet - regardless of whether this wins or loses.
When deploying this approach, punters must select a ‘base’ bet, before purchasing individual chips of an equivalent value up to their betting threshold. For example, a player who opts for a base bet of $10, with a bankroll of $1000, would buy 100 chips, valued at $10 each.
A player loss adds an additional base bet to the wager sum, so an extra chip is added to the next wager bet. When a player breaks the losing spell, a chip is removed, continuing in this pattern for each win until the base bet volume is reached again. Over time, a ‘push and pull effect’ driving bets up and down will take place, but overall earnings will level out in the long term.
1-3-2-6 Baccarat System
The 1-3-2-6 Baccarat System is a positive betting system that is designed to profit from short winning streaks, with built-in loss limiting. As the name suggests, your betting sequence is 1, 3, 2, 6. When you lose at any place in the sequence, you go back to the beginning and start over. If you win all four of your baccarat bets once, you will have made a profit of 12 betting units.
Simply follow the sequence and only move on to the next number after a winning hand.
Pattern Spotting Techniques
Some players use pattern-spotting techniques to identify trends in the game. However, it's important to note that each hand is essentially independent of the last, so pattern spotting may not be a reliable strategy.
Baccarat Card Counting
Although frowned upon, card counting is a technique deployed by experienced table game players. The basic premise of this discipline revolves a running ‘count’ total, which adjusts based on the ‘value’ of the card drawn.
Prominent mathematician Dr Ed Thorpe established several card-counting betting systems before, with his ‘Hi-Lo’ approach proving popular in recent times. The direction of the count trajectory (‘up’ or ‘down’) is dependent on whether the user backs a banker or player bet, before the progressive value is cross-referenced with the number of decks still in the dealer’s shoe. This ascertain a ‘true’ count figure, which can be used to estimate future outcomes.
Bankroll Management
Any casino game comes with an inherent risk, as odds are always (albeit often marginally) positioned in favour of the house. However, players can ensure they remain in control of expenditure, and prolong time spent at the gaming table, simply by managing their budgeted bankroll sensibly.
- Establish win/loss limits – As the edge sits with the house, players should aim to ‘quit while their ahead’. A winnings cap will encourage players to exit the game at the right time. A loss limit prevents individuals from losing more money they can afford.
- Divide bankroll amounts – Players will often use an over-arching budget to engage in a number of verticals or gambling sessions. Breaking this figure into smaller parts, and apply these sums to specific stretches of activity, can help reduce loss levels.
- Choose the right approach – Individuals should utilize a Baccarat strategy that best suits their wagering constraints and personal experience level. In the vast majority of cases, it’s advised that players should steer clear of ‘all-in’ bets, as this can burn bankrolls instantly.
No Tie Bets
Due to the fact it is unlikely that a draw will materialise (see statistical probability in an earlier section), players are discouraged from tie bets. For every eight games of Baccarat, on average, only one will result in a draw – therefore, continually backing this outcome would carry a great loss risk and reduce winnings potential. That is why it is advised to avoid placing a tie bet.
Strategies for playing Baccarat Side Bets
Baccarat side bets are bonus bets placed on outcomes other than whether the next round will be won by the player or banker or a tie. However, virtually all Baccarat side bets are entirely down to chance and cannot be applied with any sense of strategy, while also offering both only a small chance of winning (as their large payouts suggest) and a considerable house edge.
Mini-Baccarat Strategies
Mini baccarat games are a fast-paced version of baccarat, so all tips and strategies for regular baccarat still apply to mini baccarat tables.
Baccarat Strategy FAQs
What is the best strategy for Baccarat?
There is no ‘best’ strategy as such, as the correct approach is dependent on the player. Considering experience level, mathematical capability, and bankroll limits, players should adopt what they perceive to be the optimal approach for them and ensure the principles and guidelines of that strategy are adhered to rigidly.
What is the best baccarat game strategy for beginners?
Beginners should target simpler, ‘additive’ approaches that won’t add undue pressure at the gaming table. If a player’s bankroll is relatively limited in scope, it’s advisable they select a method that doesn’t facilitate the possibility of losing vast sums quickly. The D’Alembert or Paroli system is a good option in this respect, as is the simplest Baccarat strategy – bet on the banker.
What are the best bets in baccarat?
The best bet in the baccarat games is the Banker and Player bets. The Banker bet has a house edge of 1.06%.
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