The Oceania World Cup Qualifiers have always occupied a distinctive spot in global football, and the 2025 edition is no different. Featuring the smaller nations of the Pacific, the tournament has long been a stage for underdog stories while also showcasing the dominance of regional powerhouses like New Zealand.
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Historically, the winner of the Oceania qualifiers had to go through a tough intercontinental playoff against a stronger opponent from another confederation. For the 2026 World Cup, however, that will no longer be the case. The Oceania Football Confederation (OFC) now has one guaranteed spot at the tournament, with the runner-up earning a chance through an inter-confederation playoff. This new format raises the stakes for every competing nation.
The 2025 qualifiers have already progressed through two preliminary stages. In Round 1, Samoa, Tonga, American Samoa, and the Cook Islands battled for a single spot, with Samoa emerging victorious. Round 2 featured two groups of four teams, played at centralized venues, narrowing the field to four semifinalists.
The most anticipated matchup of the semifinal stage is New Zealand vs. Fiji, scheduled for March 21, 2025, in Wellington. New Zealand enter as heavy favorites, while Fiji hope to defy expectations despite the absence of their iconic captain, Roy Krishna, due to injury.
Going through this guide you’ll get a complete tournament breakdown packed with betting tips to keep you fully informed as the Oceania qualifiers unfold.
The Oceania Qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup feature all 11 OFC member nations, with each entering at different stages. The competition began in September 2024 with Round 1, where the four lowest-ranked teams: American Samoa, Cook Islands, Samoa, and Tonga, competed in a knockout mini-tournament in Samoa. The hosts emerged victorious and secured a place in the next phase.
Round 2, held from October to November 2024, introduced Samoa alongside seven higher-seeded teams. The eight nations were divided into two groups of four, each playing a round-robin in centralised venues. Group A included New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Fiji. Group B featured New Zealand, Tahiti, Vanuatu, and Samoa. The top two teams from each group advanced to the semifinals, which will be decided in one-off knockout matches on March 21, 2025, with the final following on March 24.
The key change this cycle is that the winner of the final on March 24 qualifies directly for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In previous years, the Oceania champion had to go through a grueling intercontinental playoff, with New Zealand falling short against Mexico in 2014, Peru in 2018, and Costa Rica in 2022.
Now, one OFC nation is guaranteed a place at the tournament, while the runner-up earns a second chance through an inter-confederation playoff. This new format raises the stakes significantly, making the upcoming semifinals even more crucial as each team fights for a World Cup spot in a single-elimination showdown.
New Zealand enter this semifinal clash as overwhelming favorites, while Fiji look to defy expectations and pull off a historic upset. Here's how the two sides stack up.
New Zealand have dominated Fiji across decades of official fixtures, leading the all-time series with 31 wins, 4 draws, and just 5 losses. One of their most lopsided encounters came in a 1981 World Cup qualifier, where the All Whites demolished Fiji 13-0.
Fiji’s rare victories, including a 4-0 win in 1980 and a 2-0 upset in 2008, remain bright spots in an otherwise one-sided rivalry. Their most recent meeting in March 2022 ended in a 4-0 victory for New Zealand, further highlighting the gap between the teams even in modern times.
New Zealand cruised through Round 2 of the 2025 qualifiers with a flawless 3-0-0 record, racking up 19 goals while conceding just once. They dismantled Vanuatu 8-1, routed Samoa 8-0, and comfortably dispatched Tahiti 3-0. Their triumph at the 2024 OFC Nations Cup further reinforced their regional supremacy.
Fiji, by contrast, finished with a respectable 1-2-0 record, edging Solomon Islands 1-0 and drawing against Papua New Guinea (3-3) and New Caledonia (1-1). They showed resilience, particularly by salvaging a stoppage-time equalizer against PNG. However, facing New Zealand presents a far greater challenge, made even tougher by the absence of star striker Roy Krishna due to injury.
New Zealand favor an expansive setup, alternating between a 4-3-3 and a 4-2-3-1, with Chris Wood spearheading the attack as the tournament’s leading scorer. They dominate possession, stretch defenses with width, and combine sharp crossing, maximizing Wood’s aerial threat with intricate buildup play around the box.
Sarpreet Singh and Marko Stamenić provide creativity in midfield, seamlessly linking defense to attack, while a backline anchored by Nando Pijnaker and a disciplined midfield shield led by Joe Bell ensures defensive stability.
Fiji are likely to adopt a compact approach, setting up in a 4-5-1 that transitions into a 4-3-3 on the counter. Without Krishna, the attacking responsibility falls on Sairusi Nalaubu and Setareki Hughes. Their best hope lies in disciplined defending, quick counterattacks, and capitalizing on set-piece opportunities to exploit any defensive lapses from New Zealand.
Betting on a one-sided fixture demands some creativity to find good value. Here is a rundown of common markets:
A simple bet on the winner or a draw. New Zealand will be the overwhelming favorites, while Fiji will be heavy underdogs.
This market balances the odds by giving Fiji a goal advantage. For example, a bet on New Zealand at -2.5 means they must win by at least three goals to cover. Fiji at +2.5 wins the bet if they lose by fewer than three.
A wager on the total number of goals scored. Given New Zealand’s 19-goal tally in their last three matches, bookmakers may set the line at Over/Under 3.5 or 4.5 goals.
A bet on a specific player to score first or at any point in the match. Chris Wood is the standout option, given his prolific scoring record.
A bet on the result at both half-time and full-time. New Zealand leading at both intervals (NZ/NZ) will be heavily favored, but if you expect Fiji to hold out in the first half, Draw/NZ offers better odds.
Markets for corners, cards, and potential VAR decisions. New Zealand’s attacking style often leads to a high corner count, while Fiji’s defensive approach under pressure has historically resulted in more cards.
With the semifinals set, all eyes are on whether Fiji can pull off a historic upset or if New Zealand will continue their dominance. Below is a breakdown of how the teams reached this stage, potential surprises, and some betting insights.
Before reaching the semifinals, the 2025 qualifiers featured eight teams in Round 2. New Zealand dominated Group B, cruising past their opponents. Tahiti and Vanuatu followed behind, while Samoa finished at the bottom despite a strong effort. In Group A, New Caledonia topped the group, with Fiji securing the second semifinal spot. Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands failed to advance. The general consensus was accurate and New Zealand progressed with ease, while Fiji did just enough to qualify.
Although Fiji are underdogs against New Zealand, international football has seen its share of surprises. If the All Whites struggle to convert early chances, Fiji could make things difficult by keeping the match low-scoring and looking for opportunities from set pieces or a penalty. However, the prevailing expectation remains a New Zealand victory, with many predicting a final between the All Whites and New Caledonia.
New Zealand to Win and Over 2.5 Goals: New Zealand have scored at least three goals in every qualifier so far, making this a strong bet. Their attacking strength suggests another high-scoring performance.
Asian Handicap (NZ -2): A way to get better odds on an expected New Zealand victory. A win by three goals secures the payout, while a -2.5 line offers higher returns but comes with added risk.
Both Teams to Score (No): With Roy Krishna sidelined, Fiji lack a proven goal threat. Meanwhile, New Zealand have conceded just once in the tournament, making a clean sheet the likely outcome for them.
Chris Wood to Score Anytime: Wood has been in top form, netting six goals in three group-stage matches. As New Zealand’s primary attacking outlet, he remains the best option to find the back of the net.
Half-Time/Full-Time - New Zealand/New Zealand: The All Whites tend to start fast, making them the clear favorite to lead at both half-time and full-time. Given their dominance, this is a logical selection.
For the latest odds on these and other markets, visit the LeoVegas Sportsbook.
Team form plays a crucial role, especially with stronger sides often recording dominant wins against lower-ranked opponents. Home advantage can be a factor in the Pacific, but with New Zealand hosting in Wellington, the conditions strongly favor the All Whites.
Weather and pitch conditions may have some influence, but New Zealand are typically well-equipped to adapt. With a direct World Cup spot on the line, motivation will be at its peak.
For better value, explore markets beyond the match result, such as handicaps, correct scores, or prop bets like corners and cards.
New Zealand's dominance in Oceania makes them the safest bet, while Fiji will need a near-perfect performance to compete. Here's how both teams, along with other regional contenders.
The All Whites have a squad filled with professional players, many competing in European leagues. Chris Wood remains the focal point in attack, consistently dominating regional opposition.
Sarpreet Singh and Marko Stamenić add creativity in midfield, while a disciplined backline, led by Nando Pijnaker, has been difficult to break down in qualifiers. New Zealand routinely wins by large margins against Oceania opponents, making handicap bets like -2.5 or team total goals a strong option.
Fiji have made steady progress over the past decade, historically relying on Roy Krishna as their attacking leader. However, with Krishna sidelined due to an ACL injury, their offensive threat is greatly reduced.
They showed resilience in the group stage with a win and two draws but now face a much tougher test against New Zealand. If considering a bet on Fiji, an Asian handicap at +3 could help mitigate risk. Expect a defensive approach with counterattacks as their main offensive weapon.
Tahiti made headlines in 2013 by qualifying for the Confederations Cup but have struggled to replicate that success. The Solomon Islands have occasionally shown promise but failed to reach the 2025 semifinals. While both teams are capable of surprising results, they have yet to seriously challenge the region’s top sides in recent years.
Teams like Samoa and Papua New Guinea have delivered spirited performances on occasion, but major upsets remain rare. Betting on underdogs should be approached with caution, though mismatches in odds can sometimes present value for those looking to take a risk on an unexpected result.
With top scorers, key playmakers, and emerging talents in the spotlight, these players could have a major impact on the semifinal and on betting markets.
Sarpreet Singh (New Zealand): A creative midfielder capable of unlocking defenses with precise through-balls and sharp dribbling.
Nando Pijnaker (New Zealand): A strong center-back who dominates aerial duels and provides defensive stability.
Setareki Hughes (Fiji): With Krishna out, Hughes takes on greater responsibility as both a playmaker and goal threat.
Marko Stamenić (New Zealand): A 21-year-old midfielder with European experience who adds composure and tactical intelligence to the squad.
Thomas Dunn & Merel Nand (Fiji): Both players stepped up in the group stage, scoring key goals and showing strong instincts in big moments.
Roy Krishna’s ACL injury is the biggest setback for Fiji, leaving them without their star forward. Meanwhile, New Zealand are at near full strength with no key suspensions reported.
Experts favor New Zealand to win with Over 2.5 goals, Chris Wood as an anytime goalscorer, and New Zealand -2 on the Asian handicap.
New Zealand are the clear favorites to secure Oceania's direct spot, with New Caledonia seen as the strongest alternative.
In one-sided matchups, handicap bets, Over/Under goal totals, and well-researched anytime goalscorer selections, especially for New Zealand, offer solid betting options.