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NRL (National Rugby League) Betting Guide 2025 | LeoVegas NZ

NRL (National Rugby League) Betting Guide

The National Rugby League (NRL) is Australasia's biggest professional rugby league, with 17 teams from Australia and one from New Zealand. The league started in 1998 and resulted from a merger of the Australian Rugby League (ARL) and the News Corporation’s Super League, which had been in action since the mid-1990s.

This merger marked a significant milestone in the region's sporting history by uniting established clubs and incorporating new teams to form a cohesive league. Since 2012, the Australian Rugby League Commission (ARLC) has overseen the sport's operations and governance in these areas.

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A typical NRL season runs from March to October, concluding with the NRL Grand Final, one of Australia and New Zealand's most-watched sporting events. The State of Origin is one of the main events of the series and the most-watched matchups when New South Wales faces Queensland in a three-match series.

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Like many other leagues, the NRL also has a women’s competition (NRLW), which is constantly growing in viewership as women’s sport becomes increasingly popular. The league is continuously taking initiatives with its programs to expand its presence not just in Australian sports culture but worldwide.

​NRL (National Rugby League) 2025 Schedule​

The season begins on Sunday, March 2, 2025, at 11:00 AM AEDT with the Canberra Raiders playing against the New Zealand Warriors at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The Penrith Panthers then play the Cronulla Sharks at 3:30 PM AEDT on the same day.

The opening round continues on Thursday, March 6, 2025, with the Sydney Roosters facing the Brisbane Broncos at 8:00 PM AEDT at Allianz Stadium.

The Magic Round (Round 9) is scheduled from Friday, May 2 to Sunday, May 4, 2025, at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles have a bye during this round.

  • The 2025 State of Origin series dates are:

    • Game I: Wednesday, May 28, 2025, at 8:05 PM AEST

    • Game II: Wednesday, June 18, 2025, at 7:05 PM AEST at Optus Stadium, Perth

    • Game III: Wednesday, July 9, 2025, at 8:05 PM AEST at Accor Stadium, Sydney.

    • The 2025 NRL Grand Final will be held on Sunday, October 5, 2025, at 7:30 PM AEDT at Accor Stadium, Homebush.

      The 2025 NRL Pre-season Challenge runs from Friday, February 7 to Sunday, February 23, 2025.

      The season consists of 27 rounds with matches scheduled across various venues, including notable fixtures such as:

    • Round 1 matches in early March at venues including Allegiant Stadium, Allianz Stadium, and others.

    • Round 25 matches from August 21 to 24, 2025, with games at Accor Stadium, Glen Willow Oval, AAMI Park, and more.

    • Round 26 matches from August 28 to 31, 2025, at venues including Accor Stadium, Go Media Stadium, and Queensland Country Bank Stadium.

      There are no significant rule changes for the 2025 season, but the league will monitor play-the-ball and 10-metre compliance closely, with enhanced guidelines on the obstruction rule.

      Broadcast rights are held by Nine Entertainment and Fox League, with live games on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday throughout the season, including exclusive rights to the Grand Final and State of Origin Series.

NRL Betting Lines

There are various types of bets one can place with its own unique strategies and factors to consider.

Try Scorer

Betting on the first try scorer in an NRL match is one of the most popular and exciting markets in Rugby betting. Bookmakers offer odds on which player will score the game's first try, with odds often influenced by the player's position, form, and recent performances.

Outside backs like wingers and fullbacks typically have lower odds due to their high try-scoring rates. Markets for the last try scorer and anytime try scorer are also available, giving players more options. Top try scorers like Josh Addo-Carr and Alex Johnston frequently attract high interest due to their scoring records, but the underdogs bring the biggest wins.

Total Points

There is also a huge market for betting on the total points, where bettors try to predict the combined score of both teams in a match. Bookmakers set a points line, and users can then bet on whether the actual total points scored will be above or below this limit.

This area requires knowledge of the team's offensive and defensive strengths, weather conditions, and recent form. For example, matches involving high-scoring teams like the Melbourne Storm and the Sydney Roosters might have higher points lines. Similarly, games featuring teams known for strong defences might see lower points tallies.

Match Winner

The match-winner market is the most straightforward form of bet in any sport. Players simply bet on which team will win the match. This market is available for every NRL game, including regular-season matches, finals, and the State of Origin series.

Odds are set based on the teams' perceived strength and recent form, with favourites having lower odds and underdogs having higher odds. Factors such as home-ground advantage, injuries, and head-to-head records are key in determining the winners, and odds shouldn’t be the only factor to consider when making a decision here.

Total Tries

The total tries market allows players to bet on the number of tries scored in a match. Like the total points market, bookmakers set a line for the number of tries, and gamblers can wager on whether the actual number of tries will be above or under this limit.

This market requires analysing both teams' attacking and defensive abilities to make a better guess. High-scoring teams with busy backlines will likely feature in matches with higher total tries lines.

Match Events

Betting on match events covers various game outcomes, providing bettors with various options. These markets include betting on the number of successful conversions, penalty goals, the first scoring play (try, penalty goal, or field goal), and whether there will be a sin bin or sending-off during the match.

This type of betting is a bit arbitrary and more challenging to make an educated guess on. Here are some examples of match events that explain what might occur during a game.

  • Successful Conversions and Penalty Goals: Gamblers predict the number of conversions or penalty goals that will be successful during the match
  • First Scoring Play: This market involves betting on the first scoring play, whether it will be a try, penalty goal, or field goal
  • Players to be sent off: Users can bet if a player will be sent to the sin bin or sent off during the game
  • Half-Time/Full-Time Double: This involves betting on which team will lead at halftime and which team will win at full-time
  • Exact Score: Bettors try to predict the exact result of the game, which often comes with high odds due to its difficulty

Common NRL and Rugby Terms

General Terms

  1. Try: Achieved by grounding the ball in the opponent's in-goal area, scoring four points
  2. Conversion: Additional points scored by kicking the ball through the goalposts after a try, worth two points
  3. Penalty Goal: Scored by kicking the ball through the goalposts following a foul, worth two points.
  4. Drop Goal: Scored by kicking the ball through the goalposts during open play, worth one point

Player Positions

  1. Fullback: The last line of defence and often the first point of attack. Fullbacks catch high kicks, make crucial tackles, and initiate counter-attacks with their speed and vision.
  2. Winger: Positioned on the outer edges of the field, wingers are typically the fastest players on the team. Their primary role is finishing attacking moves, scoring tries, and providing width to the team's play.
  3. Centre: Centrally located players who play a dual role in both offence and defence. Centres are key in breaking through the opposition's defence and often set up wingers for tries. Defensively, they are responsible for stopping opposing players from making breaks.
  4. Halfback: The strategic playmaker who directs the team's attack. The halfback is crucial for passing the ball from the scrum, organising plays, and often making tactical kicks. This position requires quick decision-making and excellent ball-handling skills.
  5. Five-Eighth: Often considered the primary playmaker, the five-eighth works closely with the halfback to create scoring opportunities. This player is essential in directing the team's attacking strategy, making key passes, and executing tactical kicks.

NRL-Specific Terms

  • Dummy Half: This is the player who picks up the ball from the play-the-ball area and often initiates the next phase of attack. This role is crucial for maintaining the play's momentum and quickly transitioning from defence to offence.
  • Play-the-Ball: A method to restart play after a tackle. The tackled player gets up and rolls the ball backward with their foot to a teammate (often the dummy half) to resume play. This process is fundamental to the game's flow and ensures a quick continuation of action.
  • Bomb: A high, tactical kick aimed at putting pressure on the defending team. The bomb is intended to disrupt the defence and create opportunities for the attacking team to regain possession close to the opponent's try line. It's a common strategy used to test the defensive skills of the opposition's fullback and wingers.

NRL Betting Strategies

A well-rounded strategy can help you make a more informed decision and improve your chances of success. When gambling on the NRL, always do your analysis and remember the following tips.

Analysing Team Form and Player Performance

It's important to analyse team form and player performance to make better betting decisions. Keep an eye on recent match results and player statistics such as tries scored, tackles made, and overall fitness levels. Teams on a winning streak with high-performing players are more likely to continue their success.

Home and Away Factors

Home advantage plays a significant role in NRL matches. Teams tend to perform better when playing at their home stadium due to familiar conditions and support from local fans. Away games can be challenging, and it's important to consider travel fatigue and unfamiliar playing environments when placing your bets​.

Check for Injuries and Suspensions

Players missing out for various reasons can dramatically affect a team's performance. A key player being sidelined can change a match's expected outcome. It is best to check the latest injury reports and team lineups before betting to ensure you are aware of any absences.

Weather Conditions

Weather can also influence a game's style and outcome. Wet and windy conditions often lead to lower-scoring games and can impact the performance of teams that rely heavily on fast play. Monitoring weather forecasts for match days before the odds are announced can provide an edge when betting on total points or specific match events.

Don’t Always Back The Favourite

Betting on underdogs can be fruitful when everyone is backing the clear favourites and inflating their odds. One factor to look out for is if the underdog is playing at home, which could significantly improve their chances.

They might also be going through a purple patch, their opponents might have injuries to key players, or they could be highly motivated to get a specific position in the league. Strategising your bets and using different markets like point spreads can further improve your chances in such a situation.

NRL News and Updates

Staying updated with the latest NRL news is vital for successful betting. Follow reliable sources for breaking news on player transfers, coaching changes, and other factors that can impact team performance.

*Odds are subject to change. You can check the latest odds here